锌：国内库存持续累库，沪锌价格仍然承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic zinc market is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand remains weak, leading to continuous inventory accumulation and downward pressure on the Shanghai zinc price. However, the LME zinc inventory overseas is continuously decreasing and remains at a relatively low level, so attention should be paid to the impact of overseas funds on the LME zinc price [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Industrial Supply and Demand - Mine End: This week, the domestic zinc concentrate market remained stable. The average weekly TC price of domestic SMM Zn50 zinc concentrate was flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by $8.05/dry ton to $90.3/dry ton. The arrival of imported zinc concentrate at Fangchenggang Port this week led to an increase in the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at domestic ports, with the total amount at major SMM ports increasing by 46,000 tons to 304,000 tons. Although the TC of imported zinc concentrate has been raised recently, the smelting profit of domestic zinc concentrate is still high, and smelters tend to purchase domestic ore. It is expected that there is still room for an increase in the imported TC in the future [6]. - Smelting End: In August, except for some smelters in Hunan for maintenance, the production of other smelters is expected to remain stable. Coupled with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity, SMM expects that the domestic refined zinc output in August may increase by 3.1% month-on-month to 621,500 tons. Currently, the zinc concentrate processing fee has been significantly raised compared with the previous period, and the zinc price is relatively high, so the profit margin of smelters is constantly expanding. With sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, the enthusiasm of smelters to start production has significantly increased, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase significantly [6]. - Consumption: Currently, it is still the off - season for zinc consumption. Coupled with the possible production reduction and suspension in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region around August 20, downstream consumption may further weaken [6]. - Inventory Data: As of August 14, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major SMM regions was 129,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August 11 and 16,000 tons from August 7. The LME zinc inventory (August 14) was 76,300 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from August 8 [6]. Trading Strategies - Single - sided: Profitable short positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the impact of funds on the zinc price. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [6]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific data analysis content provided in the given text. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Production: According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, from January to May 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 4.993 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 252,000 tons or 5.31%. Among them, the overseas zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,900 tons or 6.8%; China's zinc concentrate production was 1.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31,000 tons or 2.07%. In July 2025, the SMM zinc concentrate production was 346,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.53% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.68%. The expected zinc concentrate production in August 2025 is 340,800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73%. In July, the monthly raw material inventory of smelters was 468,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 157%. The inventory of zinc concentrate at major domestic ports increased by 46,000 tons to 354,000 tons [26][30]. - Import: From January to June 2025, overseas mines resumed and started production, and the zinc concentrate production increased significantly. When the domestic zinc concentrate import window opened, smelters and traders actively purchased and locked prices, resulting in a continuous inflow of overseas zinc concentrate into the domestic market, and the supply of imported zinc concentrate increased significantly. It is expected that the zinc concentrate import window will still open in the second half of the year, and a large amount of imported zinc concentrate will flow into the domestic market. In June 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates was 330,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.95% [32][41]. Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In August, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate rose to 3,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,350 yuan/ton compared with December 2024. On August 15, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by $8.05/dry ton to $90.3/dry ton [48]. Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc production was 5.512 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 184,400 tons or 3.24%. The main reason for the decrease in production was the reduction and suspension of production at the Seakpho smelter in South Korea and the Annaka smelter in Japan. The global refined zinc consumption was 5.419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43,100 tons or 0.79%. The decrease in consumption was mainly concentrated in the United States and Mexico. From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc had a cumulative surplus of 92,800 tons. In May, due to the significant increase in zinc consumption in Asia, the global refined zinc shifted from surplus to shortage [54]. Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - Domestic Smelter Operation: From January to July, the average operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was about 89.2%, a year - on - year increase of 3.97%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 89.95%, a year - on - year increase of 2.05%; the operating rate of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.59%, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the operating rate of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 72.38%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. From January to February this year, the operating rate of domestic smelters was lower than that of the same period last year, mainly because smelters were still in a loss - making state and due to the Spring Festival holiday. Since March, after smelters turned from loss to profit, the operating rate increased significantly year - on - year. From January to July, the domestic refined zinc production was 3.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.67% [57]. - Zinc Ingot Import: In June 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons or 34.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.24%. From January to June, the cumulative refined zinc import volume was 191,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.53%. In June, the refined zinc export volume was 1,900 tons, so the net refined zinc import volume in June was 34,100 tons [59]. Raw Material Supply and Demand Summary - The report provides a detailed table of the supply and demand of zinc concentrate and refined zinc from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, net import volume, total supply, and their year - on - year changes [67].