棉系周报：下游稳定为主，棉价震荡略偏强-20250819

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Downstream Market Remains Stable, Cotton Prices Fluctuate Slightly Higher [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the US cotton market will fluctuate slightly higher due to a significant reduction in US cotton production and a high good - rate. The Zhengzhou cotton market is also expected to show a similar trend as the trading logic shifts to the demand side, with supply remaining tight and demand expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season [8][23][39] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: With no obvious macro - changes, the US cotton production is significantly reduced, and the good - rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, so the US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly higher [8] - US Cotton Growth: As of August 10, the budding rate, boll - setting rate, and flocculation rate of US cotton are slower than last year and the five - year average, but the good - rate is 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [8] - US Cotton Sales: In the week ending August 7, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 54,900 tons, and 2026/27 contracts were 200 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 32,300 tons [8] - CFTC Position: As of August 8, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1,344 to 21,423, and the total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 892 to 43,505, equivalent to 990,000 tons [8] - Brazil: As of the week of August 9, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 39%, with a month - on - month increase of 9.3 percentage points and 16.3% slower than last year [8] - India: From July 31 to August 13, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 39.4mm, 22mm lower than the normal level and 5mm higher than last year [8] - Global: According to the latest August global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in August is 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month reduction of 391,000 tons. The consumption is reduced by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory drops by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Supply Side: As of mid - July, China's national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of August 8, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.0067 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,400 tons [23] - Demand Side: Currently in the off - season, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 882,100 tons, and the yarn and grey fabric inventory days were 28.36 days and 37.24 days respectively. As of August 14, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 65.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.30% [23] - Comprehensive View: After the recent China - US talks, the short - term tariff impact may weaken, and domestic policies have a positive impact on commodities. The supply is tight, and whether to issue sliding - scale duty quotas will be a major factor. Demand is expected to improve, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly higher [23] Option Trading Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.7815, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.5520. It is recommended to sell put options [37] Futures Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly higher in the future [41] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - Mid - end Situation: Data on the operating rate of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days are presented in the form of charts [48] - Cotton Inventory: Data on cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are presented in a table [50] - Spot - Futures Basis: Data on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US upland cotton are presented in the form of charts [53]