国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250819

Report Overview - Report Date: August 19, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Precious metals and base metals futures market analysis Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: PPI exceeded expectations, dampening interest - rate cut expectations [2] - Silver: Prices declined slightly [2] - Copper: Lacked driving forces, with prices oscillating [2] - Zinc: Prices were under pressure and declined [2] - Lead: LME inventory decreased, providing price support [2] - Tin: Prices oscillated within a range [2] - Aluminum: Price fluctuations converged [2] - Alumina: Price center shifted downward [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Prices followed those of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillation based on fundamentals, with caution for news - related risks [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro expectations and reality [2] Summary by Metal Gold - Price Movement: All major gold contracts and spot prices declined, with沪金2510 down 0.37% to 775.80, and Comex黄金2510 down 0.02% to 3381.70 [5] - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8] Silver - Price Movement: All major silver contracts and spot prices decreased, with沪银2510 down 0.88% to 9204, and Comex白银2510 down 0.04% to 38.020 [5] - Trend Intensity: - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [8] Copper - Price Movement:沪铜主力合约closed at 78,910, down 0.19%, and伦铜3M电子盘closed at 9,752, down 0.08% [10] - Market News: US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the highest in three years. Chile's copper exports to China recovered in July after a decline in June [10][12] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Zinc - Price Movement:沪锌主力收盘价was 22360, down 0.64%, and伦锌3M电子盘收was 2796.5, down 1.62% [13] - Market News: At the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, Powell's speech was closely watched, with different banks having various expectations [14] - Trend Intensity: - 1, showing a bearish outlook [14] Lead - Price Movement:沪铅主力收盘价was 16775, down 0.45%, and伦铅3M电子盘收was 1981, down 0.45% [16] - Market News: US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month [16] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Tin - Price Movement:沪锡主力合约closed at 267,020, up 0.07%, and伦锡3M电子盘closed at 33,670, up 0.18% [19] - Market News: Multiple macro - level events such as statements from Chinese and US leaders [20] - Trend Intensity: - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: Price fluctuations converged.沪铝主力合约收盘价was 20600, and LME铝3M收盘价was 2589 [22] - Alumina: Price center shifted downward.沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价was 3171 [22] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Prices followed electrolytic aluminum.铝合金主力合约收盘价was 20090 [22] - Market News: US - India trade agreement was uncertain, and US "sticky inflation" was accelerating [24] - Trend Intensity: Aluminum: 0; Alumina: - 1; Aluminum alloy: 0 [24] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: Prices oscillated in a narrow range based on fundamentals.沪镍主力收盘价was 120,340 [25] - Stainless Steel: Steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro expectations and reality.不锈钢主力收盘价was 13,010 [25] - Market News: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, such as production suspensions and regulatory changes [25][26][27] - Trend Intensity: Nickel: 0; Stainless steel: 0 [30]