苯乙烯产业链期货周报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - The overall trading strategy for the styrene industry chain includes a side - way consolidation for single - side trading, shorting the spread between styrene and pure benzene (going long on pure benzene and short on styrene) for arbitrage, and selling both call and put options. The price of pure benzene is expected to be well - supported in the third quarter due to potential inventory reduction, while styrene's price is highly influenced by its cost side [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Side - way consolidation - Arbitrage: Short the spread between styrene and pure benzene (long pure benzene, short styrene) - Options: Sell both call and put options [5] 3.1.2 Pure Benzene Analysis - Price: This week, oil prices were in a side - way consolidation, and pure benzene futures prices trended down. Sinopec's pure benzene listed price increased by 100 yuan/ton on Tuesday. Spot prices were firm, with Shandong's market being strong. The arbitrage window between Shandong and East China remained closed. - Supply: Since late July, new units of CNOOC Daxie and Jingbo have been put into operation, and some cracked units have restarted after maintenance, increasing the supply of petroleum benzene. With rumors of production cuts in coking plants in Hebei and Shandong, the expected shortage of crude benzene supply has eased, and the loss of hydrogenated benzene has decreased, leading to increased production. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has seen a slight increase in operation, but with compressed profits. The inventory of pure benzene and its primary downstream has decreased. A new 670,000 - ton/year styrene production unit using ethylbenzene dehydrogenation in Jingbo Sida Rui has been successfully put into operation, but its load is currently low. There is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third - quarter for pure benzene [5]. 3.1.3 Styrene Analysis - Supply and demand: This week, both supply and demand of styrene increased. Port inventory decreased, low - price transactions increased, and the market's replenishment strength increased. However, styrene production is still at a loss. There are maintenance plans for Guangdong Petrochemical and Xingpu Chemical in September. A new 670,000 - ton/year styrene unit in Jingbo Sida Rui produced qualified products on August 6 but has not been officially sold. - Price influence: The supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have limited driving force, and its price is highly affected by the cost side [5]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Pure Benzene - Price: The price of pure benzene in North China is stronger than that in South China, and the regional arbitrage window remains closed. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is stable, while the spread between pure benzene and styrene has widened [7][9]. - Supply: The operating rate of petroleum benzene has increased. According to Zhuochuang Information, the operating rate of petroleum benzene this week was 82.69%, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has rebounded, and the loss has decreased [15][23]. - Demand: The downstream of pure benzene has seen a slight increase in operation, but profits have weakened. The inventory of pure benzene and its primary downstream has decreased [24][26][30]. 3.2.2 Styrene - Price: Port inventory has decreased, low - price transactions have increased, and the basis and calendar spread have strengthened. As of this Friday, the spot negotiation price of benzene in Jiangsu was 7290 - 7315 yuan/ton, and the negotiation prices for August and September were 7295 - 7325 yuan/ton and 7340 - 7370 yuan/ton respectively [34][35]. - Supply and demand: Both supply and demand of styrene have increased, but production is at a loss. There are maintenance plans for some enterprises in September. The 3S downstream has stable profits, increased operation, and rising inventory [41][46][48].