生猪周报：生猪周报供应变化有限价格窄幅震荡-20250819

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the national live pig prices showed an overall volatile trend, with limited overall market changes. The market is expected to remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. On the futures side, the recent market showed a certain correction, but there is still support for the far - month contracts due to the relatively strong motivation for capacity reduction in the breeding sector [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The live pig prices across the country showed a volatile trend this week. Large - scale enterprises had a relatively high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening began to enter the market. The slaughter weight remained high, and the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand was average, with a slight increase in slaughter volume but also an increase in frozen product inventory and a decline in fresh - sales rate. The futures market was under pressure from the spot side, but there was still support for far - month contracts [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a short - selling strategy near the high for near - month contracts and a long - buying strategy near the low for far - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Implement the LH91 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell far - month put options [5]. 2. Data Chart & Logic Analysis Live Pig Prices - This week, live pig prices in various regions showed a volatile trend. In the Northeast, the price was 13.4 - 13.5 yuan/kg, up 0.05 - 0.15 yuan/kg; in North China, it was 13.77 - 13.83 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, it was 13.83 - 13.92 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.15 yuan/kg; in East China, it was 13.9 - 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 to up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, it was 13.55 - 13.71 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.25 yuan/kg; in Central China, it was 13.71 - 14.1 yuan/kg, stable to up 0.3 yuan/kg; in South China, it was 13.27 - 14.99 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg. The market supply pressure remained stable, and prices fluctuated within a narrow range [10]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - Slaughter: The overall slaughter volume changed little this week. Large - scale enterprises had high enthusiasm for slaughter, while ordinary farmers had average motivation. Secondary fattening increased slightly. The slaughter weight increased slightly, and the price difference between large and small pigs rose, indicating a slowdown in the weight - reduction rhythm. The subsequent slaughter pressure still exists, but secondary fattening may have an impact. - Consumption: The demand was still average. The slaughter volume increased month - on - month, but the frozen product inventory also increased, and the fresh - sales rate continued to decline [12]. Breeding Profits - As of the week ending August 15, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profits declined due to the general pig price trend and the strong performance of sows and piglets in the previous period [20]. Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 389 yuan/head, down 26 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 484 yuan/kg, down 30 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for piglet replenishment by breeders was average. - Sows: The sow price was 1612 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs showed a rebound trend, and the culling situation changed little. - Farrowing Sow Inventory: According to Yongyi's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July increased slightly month - on - month, with a 0.52% increase in the comprehensive sample and a 0.14% increase in large - scale enterprises. According to Ganglian's data, the farrowing sow inventory in July remained flat month - on - month, with a 0.01% increase in large - scale enterprises and a 0.17% decrease in small and medium - sized farmers [25][27].