聚酯产业链期货周报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PR futures are expected to move in a range-bound manner this week, with suggestions of waiting and watching for arbitrage and double - selling options [6]. - The polyester industry shows mixed performance, with开工 rising slightly and processing fees recovering at a low level, but most products are still in a loss - making state except for short - fiber and filament [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX&PTA: The PX futures price fluctuates, the spot floating price weakens, and the basis and monthly spread compress. Supply is on the rise, and profits of long - and short - process plants are good. For trading, the unilateral strategy is range - bound, arbitrage is on hold, and double - selling options are recommended [6]. - PTA: Supply and demand both increase, social inventory rises, the monthly spread weakens, and the basis strengthens slightly. In the short term, processing fees are undervalued, and there are many maintenance devices. In the medium term, supply will increase. The trading strategies are the same as those for PX [6]. - MEG: Supply and demand increase, port inventory rises, the monthly spread weakens, and the basis strengthens. The domestic maintenance devices are few, and the开工 rate is rising. The trading strategies are range - bound for the unilateral position, waiting and watching for arbitrage, and double - selling options [6]. - PF: Supply and demand increase, inventory accumulates slightly, and processing fees fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are the same as above [6]. - PR: Bottle - chip factories continue to reduce production. The开工 rate is stable, and processing fees fluctuate around 420 yuan/ton. The trading strategies are also the same [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The开工 rate of polyester rises slightly, factory inventory increases, and processing fees recover at a low level. Short - fiber and filament are slightly profitable, while other products are still in the red [9]. - The terminal开工 rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rises, and the sales atmosphere improves [11]. - The filament开工 rate reaches a high level, the sales volume surges at the beginning of the week, and inventory pressure eases [15]. - Bottle - chip factories continue to cut production, the开工 rate is stable for three consecutive weeks, and processing fees fluctuate around 420 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply and demand of short - fiber increase, and inventory accumulates slightly [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The spot floating price of PX weakens, and the basis and monthly spread compress [23]. - Profits are good, and the开工 rate increases. Some maintenance devices have restarted, and supply is on the rise [25]. 3.2.3 PTA - The basis of PTA strengthens, and the monthly spread weakens. Social inventory continues to rise [33]. - Supply and demand both increase, and processing fees recover slightly. In the short term, processing fees are undervalued, and in the medium term, supply will increase [35]. 3.2.4 Ethylene Glycol - Port shipments of ethylene glycol improve, the basis strengthens, and the monthly spread weakens. Port inventory rises, but the dominant inventory is still at a low level [40]. - Supply and demand increase, and the contradiction is not significant. The domestic maintenance devices are few, and the开工 rate is rising [42]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - Price: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and other related products [51]. - Variance and Profit: It includes various variances and profit indicators such as PX - MX, PX theoretical profit, etc. [54][55]. - Disproportionation and Oil - blending Spread and Profit: It involves data on disproportionation and oil - blending spreads and profits [63]. - Regional Spread and Profit: It presents regional spreads and profits between the US and South Korea for related products [70]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the load and开工 rate of PX and PTA in China [74]. 3.3.2 PTA - Profit: It includes PTA's profits related to crude oil, naphtha, and PX [87]. - Supply and Demand: It shows the load indexes of PTA and polyester [91]. - Inventory: It includes PTA social inventory, factory raw material inventory, and warehouse receipts [93]. 3.3.3 MEG - Price: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol and related raw materials [95]. - Spread: It includes various spreads such as internal - external spreads, regional spreads, etc. [97]. - Profit: It includes profits from different production methods of ethylene glycol [108]. 3.3.4 Polyester - Profit: It includes the profits of long - fiber, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other polyester products [111]. - Supply: It shows the load and inventory of polyester products [113]. - Demand: It includes data on the load, inventory, and sales of downstream products such as pure - polyester yarn and cotton - polyester blended yarn [117].