Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, with the market being hot and retail investors accelerating their entry. It is expected to continue the process of bubble - formation in the short term, but pressure will emerge after the sentiment reaches its peak [2][18]. - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to resolve in the short term, so the US dollar will remain volatile. Gold prices are under pressure due to the marginal easing of geopolitical risks [11][14]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to weaken seasonally as the weather cools in mid - to late August. The price of copper is likely to continue its high - level oscillation pattern [3]. - The prices of various commodities and financial products are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, and their trends are complex and changeable. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Germany's Chancellor Merz said the tri - party meeting exceeded expectations, and Trump and Putin agreed that Putin and Zelensky would meet in two weeks. Gold prices are under pressure due to the marginal easing of geopolitical risks. The market is concerned about Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk of short - term gold prices [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump and Zelensky hope to reach a consensus through tri - party talks, but the differences between Russia and Ukraine are large, so the short - term conflict is difficult to resolve, and the US dollar will remain volatile [14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Both Russia and the US support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, but the structural differences between the two sides on territorial issues are difficult to resolve, and the negotiation signal is more significant than the actual impact. It is necessary to pay attention to the callback risk if Powell's speech at the global central bank symposium is hawkish [16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council will take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the market is hot. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [17][18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 2665 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1545 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is recommended to take a bearish approach and be cautious when betting on rebounds [20][21][22]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased slightly. Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August increased year - on - year. The good - rate of US soybeans was the same as the previous week and higher than market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a view of slightly bullish oscillation and pay attention to the Pro Farmer Midwest field inspection [23][24][25]. 2.2 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - From January to July, national railways transported 11.96 billion tons of coal. The price of thermal coal continued to rise this week but is expected to enter a seasonal decline as the weather cools. The impact of over - production inspections on the operating rate is small, and the operating rate of coal mines decreased slightly [26][27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Fenix's Beebyn - W11 iron ore completed its first shipment. The price of iron ore is oscillating weakly, and it is expected to be weak in the short term due to factors such as the seasonal accumulation of finished product inventory and the decline of surrounding varieties [29]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed safeguard measures on flat steel products, and Vietnam imposed anti - dumping duties on carbon and alloy steel coated coils. China's steel exports increased in July. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to volatility risks [30][31][33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The Philippines obtained a 2026 fiscal - year sugar export quota to the US. South Africa's sugarcane production is expected to increase by more than 7% in 2025. China's sugar imports in July were at a record high for the same period. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for the January contract [35][36][37]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions were negative on August 18. The spread between CS09 and C09 weakened again. The supply - demand situation of starch is still weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the regional spread between North China and Northeast China [39]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import volume of major feed grains in China increased in July. Corn futures prices continued to decline after the contract change. It is recommended to hold short positions in the November and January contracts and pay attention to weather conditions. There may be opportunities for 11 - 3 reverse arbitrage [40]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Some high - energy - consuming industries in the northern region received notices of production restrictions for the military parade. Only one alumina enterprise in Henan reported potential production reduction. The supply - demand of alumina is in an oversupply trend, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [41][42][43]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. Anhui's environmental protection situation has no new progress, and the supply of refined lead is still under pressure. The import of lead needs continuous attention. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery factories increased, but the peak - season demand may be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount on August 15. Penoles' zinc production declined in the second quarter. The external market has high structural risks, and the domestic fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage idea before overseas inventories bottom out [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Inner Mongolia completed the first settlement of new energy marketization. The spot price of polysilicon changed little, and the inventory increased. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in August, and the terminal demand is weakening. It is recommended to use a callback - bullish strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at a spread of about - 2000 yuan/ton [50][52][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hoshine's coal - electricity - silicon integration project phase III had an environmental assessment public notice. The supply of industrial silicon may increase marginally in August, but the demand from polysilicon may also increase, and the inventory may decrease. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, with the risk being the resumption of production by large factories [55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased on August 18. The macro - environment has cooled slightly, and the supply - demand of nickel is in a double - weak pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [57][58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sichuan Energy Power's lithium mine is in the production - ramping stage, and Australia's Covalent's lithium hydroxide plant started production. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate may turn to inventory reduction in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips [59][60][61]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco applied to restart part of the El Teniente copper mine. Speculative funds increased their bullish bets on COMEX copper for the first time in four weeks. The short - term macro - factors support copper prices, but the weight of commodities in multi - asset allocation may be adjusted down. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage strategies [63][64][65]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The congestion at Indian ports continues, and the congestion at the Panama Canal has eased. The price of LPG arriving in the Far East still has support, while the CP is expected to be weak in the short term [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US and Russia support direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and oil prices rose slightly. The market is still waiting and seeing, and oil prices lack directional drivers in the short term. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view and wait for new drivers [69][70]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries increased, while the social inventory decreased. The fundamental improvement of asphalt is limited, and the futures price is expected to be in a dilemma in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories changed little. The price of bottle - chip futures rose. The industry's production reduction has an effect, and the processing fee has slightly recovered. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new installations from late August to September [73][74][75]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rose on August 18. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was good. The spot price of caustic soda has bottomed out, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [76][77]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was mainly stable. The futures price of pulp oscillated weakly. The overall sentiment of commodities has cooled, and the pulp market is expected to oscillate in the short term [78][79]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in China decreased. The futures price oscillated after a decline. India's anti - dumping ruling may reduce China's PVC exports, and the short - term futures price is expected to be weak [80]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The price of PX rose. The domestic PX supply is expected to increase marginally, and the profit is compressed. The single - side price of PX mainly follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is recommended to adjust with the cost of oil prices and try to go long lightly on dips [81][82]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA rose, and the basis was stable. The demand at the weaving end rebounded slightly, and the polyester load increased marginally. The PTA processing fee may have a small repair space. It is recommended to follow the cost - end oscillation and try to go long lightly on dips [83][84][85]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area oscillated and adjusted. The supply of soda ash increased, and the demand was average. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to manage positions well [86]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The futures price of glass decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the single - side and focus on arbitrage operations, such as the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash when the spread widens [87]. 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline slightly in the short term, and the supply - demand of styrene will gradually balance in September but may accumulate inventory in the long term. The price of styrene is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cost - end changes caused by oil - price fluctuations [88][89]. 2.28 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - India's NFL issued a urea import tender. The urea futures price oscillated under pressure, and the spot price fell significantly. The demand is weak, and the futures price is affected by potential internal and external policy expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the potential changes in the export end [90]. 2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of Yangshan Port in July reached a record high. The SCFIS (European line) index decreased. The supply pressure in September has improved, but the demand is weakening, and the freight rate will continue to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract and pay attention to the empty - voyage situation during the National Day [91][92].
综合晨报：沪指创十年新高-20250819
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:22