中辉期货观望为宜

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products such as rebar and hot-rolled coil, the suggestion is to hold off and observe [1][5]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to participate in the short - term [1][9]. - For coke and coking coal, the recommendation is to be cautiously bullish [1]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the suggestion is to be cautiously bearish and consider short - selling [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products are showing obvious off - season characteristics and are fluctuating within a range. The supply - demand of rebar is expected to become looser, while the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are relatively stable [3][4]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to the weak downstream. The ore price fluctuates weakly with the steel price [7][8]. - Coke spot has started the seventh round of price increases, and there may be a game with steel mills later. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there is support at the bottom [11]. - For coking coal, domestic production is flat month - on - month, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. The raw material demand is stable, and there is support at the bottom [14]. - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are tending to be looser, with supply pressure still existing [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - Variety Analysis - Rebar: Currently, blast furnace profits are good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, with high pig iron production. The demand is weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. The supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [1][4]. - Price Information - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is at 3237, down 32; Rebar 05 is at 3280, down 34; Rebar 10 is at 3188, down 1. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3413, down 19; Hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3439; Hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3419, down 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is at 3050, down 10. Rebar prices in different regions have declined, and hot - rolled coil prices in some regions have also decreased [2]. - Operation Suggestions - Rebar: Due to the remaining macro - sentiment, it is not advisable to chase short positions [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: After continuous futures price drops, the downward space may be limited, so it's better to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Variety Analysis - Pig iron production has slightly increased. Overseas ore arrivals and shipments have both increased, and port and steel mill inventories have also increased. The ore price fluctuates weakly with the steel price due to weak economic data in July and the off - season characteristics of the finished product end [8]. - Price Information - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is at 772, down 4; Iron ore 05 is at 750, down 6; Iron ore 09 is at 790, down 2 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is at 770, down 2; Yangdi powder is at a certain price with a decline; BRBF powder is at 810, unchanged [6]. - Operation Suggestions - Short - term participation is recommended [9]. 3.3 Coke - Variety Analysis - Coke spot has started the seventh round of price increases, and there may be a game with steel mills later. Coke enterprise profits have improved and are generally positive. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable [11]. - Price and Data Information - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1702.0, down 27.5; Coke 5 - month contract is at 1796.0, down 35.5; Coke 9 - month contract is at 1634.0, down 19.0 [10]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is 1280, unchanged; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is 1520, unchanged [10]. - Weekly data: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 74.3%, up 0.3; 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron production is 240.7, up 0.3 [10]. - Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [12]. 3.4 Coking Coal - Variety Analysis - Domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. The total mine inventory has stopped decreasing, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The raw material demand is stable [14]. - Price and Data Information - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1187.5, down 42.5; Coking coal 5 - month contract is at 1233.0, down 53.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is at 1035.0, down 45.5 [13]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal price is 1430, unchanged; Gujiao main coking coal price is 1280, unchanged [13]. - Weekly data: The sample coal washing plant's operating rate is 61.5, down 0.8; Sample coking plants' daily average coke production is 52.3, up 0.3 [13]. - Operation Suggestions - Cautiously bullish [15]. 3.5 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Variety Analysis - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals are tending to be loose. Although there is short - term demand resilience, the overall inventory level is still high. The shipping volume of the three major countries has increased significantly, and the port inventory is basically the same as last week [18]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals are tending to be loose, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, and the warehouse receipts have continued to increase, with obvious overall supply pressure [18]. - Price Information - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6120, up 6; Manganese silicon 05 is at 6144, down 6; Manganese silicon 09 is at 6026, unchanged. Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5866, down 46; Ferrosilicon 05 is at 5990, down 48; Ferrosilicon 09 is at 5710, down 44 [17]. - Spot prices: Silicomanganese 6517 prices in different regions have different changes; Ferrosilicon 72 prices in different regions have some changes [17]. - Operation Suggestions - Silicomanganese: Short - selling participation or waiting and seeing is advisable due to the remaining market sentiment and short - term cost support [19]. - Ferrosilicon: Short - selling participation is recommended, and continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke [19].