国新国证期货早报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - Stock Index Futures: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - Coke and Coking Coal Futures: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - Other Futures: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - Soybean Meal: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - Pig: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - Palm Oil: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - Copper: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - Iron Ore: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - Asphalt: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - Logs: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - Steel: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - Alumina: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - Aluminum: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]