中辉有色观点-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds and hold for the long - term [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Zinc: Bearish, recommended to hold short positions in the short - term and sell on rallies in the long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation is seeking a truce, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with expectations that Fed Chairman Powell may take a hawkish stance, which will suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and cause the US dollar to rebound. This has an impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. In the long - term, factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern will support the prices of precious metals, especially gold. For base metals, supply - demand relationships, strategic resource attributes, and industry development trends will affect their price trends [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Global parties are seeking a cease - fire in geopolitical conflicts, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is highly anticipated. Gold and silver are trading in a narrow range [2] - Basic Logic: The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Different institutions have different expectations for his stance. There are also signs of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Hamas situation. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3] - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's short - term trading range is between 9150 - 9400, and it is recommended to go long in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [4] Copper - Market Review: The fluctuation of Shanghai copper has converged, and it closed with a doji star after narrow - range trading [6] - Industry Logic: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The output of electrolytic copper in July increased, but it may decline marginally in August - September due to smelting maintenance. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. The overall copper inventory overseas has increased slightly, and the domestic social inventory has also risen slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - Strategy Recommendation: As the global central bank annual meeting approaches, the US dollar index has rebounded, and copper prices are under pressure. It is recommended to buy copper on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities to sell and hedge to lock in reasonable profits. In the long - term, copper is a strategic resource in the Sino - US game, and there is a long - term bullish outlook. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc has been oscillating weakly, testing the support of the lower level [9] - Industry Logic: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The output of refined zinc in China in July and August increased. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has risen, and smelter enthusiasm has increased. On the demand side, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market trading is dull, and domestic zinc inventories have increased [9] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, due to the off - season of demand and inventory accumulation, zinc is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and take partial profits on dips. In the long - term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22000, 22600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices have declined under pressure, and alumina has also shown a downward trend [12] - Industry Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The demand side has seen a slight increase in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and domestic alumina plants have increased their loads. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has accumulated, and the short - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [13] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory during the off - season. The operating range of the main contract is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices have been running weakly, and stainless steel has been under pressure [16] - Industry Logic: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion. The output of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory has accumulated during the off - season. For stainless steel, the effect of production cuts is weakening, and there is still over - supply pressure during the off - season [17] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change of downstream inventory. The operating range of the main nickel contract is [120000 - 123000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened higher and moved higher, with increased positions throughout the day, rising more than 4% [20] - Industry Logic: Although the overall inventory and output have decreased slightly, the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed production suspension, the market expects synchronous production suspension of other mines in Jiangxi. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream material factories have started the stocking cycle. The inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [21] - Strategy Recommendation: The supply speculation expectation still exists, and long positions should be held in the range of [88500 - 91000] [22]