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研究所晨会观点精萃-20250819
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:36
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, global risk aversion has decreased, and the US dollar has rebounded. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations, but policy stimulus expectations have increased, and domestic risk appetite has generally risen [2]. - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. Among the commodity sectors, the black sector has increased short - term volatility, the non - ferrous sector is expected to fluctuate and it is advisable to be cautiously long, the energy and chemical sector is expected to fluctuate weakly, and precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, all of which require cautious observation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Macro: Overseas, the negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine has made progress, the US retail sales in July increased as expected, and the market has reduced expectations of a significant interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Chinese Premier proposed to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real estate market, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended by 90 days, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties and increasing domestic risk appetite [2]. - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, film and television theaters, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Although China's economic data in July was weak, policy stimulus expectations have increased, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. - Treasury Bonds: Expected to fluctuate and correct at a high level in the short - term, it is advisable to watch cautiously [2]. Commodity Research Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel have declined slightly. The US has expanded the scope of steel and aluminum tariff collection, and the real demand has weakened. The inventory of five major steel products has increased, and the supply of rebar is relatively low while the supply of plates is relatively stable. It is advisable to view the steel market with a weak - oscillation mindset in the short - term [5][6]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have continued to decline slightly. Although the steel mill profits are high in the short - term, the iron water production is expected to decrease as important events approach. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is accumulating. The iron ore price may weaken periodically later [8]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot price of silicon iron remained flat, and that of silicon manganese rebounded slightly. The market performance is good, and the manufacturers' enthusiasm for production is high. The manganese ore price is firm. The iron alloy price is expected to be weak - oscillating in the short - term [8]. - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply has increased, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The price upside is limited [8]. - Glass: The main contract of glass has shown range - bound oscillations. The supply is stable, the demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the profit has decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered later [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of the US - Russia negotiation. The copper mine supply is increasing, and the domestic demand will weaken marginally. The strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has declined due to US tariff measures. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has increased and then stabilized. The medium - term upside is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening rebound basis [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production cost has increased, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. - Tin: The supply - side开工率 has slightly declined, the mine end is expected to become looser, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the upside is restricted [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate has reached a new high. Due to the suspension of a mine, the supply is short - term favorable, and the bullish sentiment is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon has declined slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon has risen. The warehouse receipt pressure has increased. Pay attention to the progress of the photovoltaic enterprise symposium organized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The US - Ukraine meeting has dampened the expectation of a quick cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market is uncertain, and the oil price has been fluctuating in a narrow range [14]. - Asphalt: Affected by geopolitical uncertainties, asphalt has followed the decline in crude oil prices. The asphalt market is still weak in the peak season, and it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near future [14]. - PX: The decline in crude oil prices has led to a correction in the energy and chemical sector. PX is still in a tight supply situation in the short - term and is expected to oscillate [14]. - PTA: The downstream demand has rebounded slightly, the processing margin is low, and the supply is restricted. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory has decreased slightly, but the factory inventory is still high. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price has declined due to sector resonance. The terminal orders have increased slightly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [15]. - Methanol: The inland market is strong, and the port market is weak. The regional differentiation is obvious. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - PP: The supply pressure has increased, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for peak - season stocking later [16][17]. - LLDPE: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of a turn. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract can be observed for demand and stocking [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT soybean market is consolidating, waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop inspection. The US soybean growth indicators are good [18]. - Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has been relieved. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed is limited. Pay attention to the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in the near - month contracts [19]. - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil inventory at ports is decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter [20]. - Palm Oil: The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. The Indonesian and Indian inventories are low, the export has improved, and the price is expected to run strongly [20]. - Corn: The price of Northeast corn is weak, the market trading is inactive, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the future. The corn futures market is weak [21]. - Pigs: The spot hog price is weak, the supply has increased, and the price decline has narrowed. Pay attention to the performance of hog prices during the consumption peak in late August [21].