中原期货晨会纪要-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend, with multiple indices hitting stage - highs, and both domestic and international institutions are generally optimistic about the subsequent performance of the Chinese stock market [6]. - The global financial market is awaiting the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [8]. - The current slow - bull market in A - shares has entered the middle stage, with a structural rise, and investors should pay attention to the rhythm of investment and avoid chasing up and selling down [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - economic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - A - share market indices hit new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3700 points, and the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [6]. - Trump and Zelensky met at the White House, and there may be a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine will purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 20 to introduce parade preparation work [7]. - Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank proposed improving the legal system of movable property guarantee [7]. - The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including formulating a new payment - by - disease model and exploring centralized procurement after the agreement period [7]. - In the first half of the year, automobile dealers suffered serious losses in new - car business, and the outlook for 2025 is a slight increase or flat [8]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate slightly and show a downward trend in the long - term [10]. - On August 18, the sugar futures price rose, and considering the supply and demand situation, short - term long positions can be lightly established near the support level [10]. - Corn futures continued to be weak on August 18, and with a "double - weak" fundamental situation, existing short positions can be held, and new short positions can be established on rebounds [10]. - The spot price of live pigs was stable over the weekend, with a short - term upward trend, but the futures market is bearish [10]. - The spot price of eggs was stable with an upward tendency over the weekend, but the futures market may still decline to repair the basis [12]. - Cotton futures showed weak upward momentum, and with a supply - tight situation in the short - term and expected production increase in the long - term, the price may decline in the short - term [12]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price increased, and the futures price may fluctuate within the range of 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton [12]. - The price of caustic soda rose, and with the approaching peak demand season, a bullish trading strategy is recommended [12]. - The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [13]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - The price of copper may continue to oscillate, and the price of aluminum is expected to adjust at a high level [13]. - The supply of alumina increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - The price of steel products may fluctuate, with short - term adjustment pressure and medium - term upward momentum [13]. - The price of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and long positions can be established near the support level [15]. 2.4 Options and Finance - For stock index options on August 18, the A - share market was strong, and different trading strategies are recommended for trend and volatility investors [16]. - In the short - term, for stock indices, attention should be paid to reducing positions in high - valuation and high - deviation indices. The current A - share market is in a slow - bull market, and low - buying opportunities can be sought during sharp declines [17][19].