宝城期货动力煤早报-20250819

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the price of thermal coal will remain strong. The domestic thermal coal price has been running strongly this week, and it is expected to continue this trend due to factors such as high - temperature - driven demand, limited supply growth, and inventory reduction [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark [5]. - The overall atmosphere in the coal market is still optimistic, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the middle and late August due to high temperatures [5]. Supply Side - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [5]. - Since August, affected by rainfall in major production areas, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance, thermal coal production has not recovered significantly, and supply growth in production areas is slow [5]. Demand Side - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 409,200 tons, an increase of 24,700 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 251,800 tons, an increase of 28,500 tons week - on - week [5]. - The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, temperatures in most parts of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher, and the hydropower substitution effect may still be limited [5]. Inventory - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3636 million tons, with a significant inventory reduction of 118,300 tons during the week, and the inventory was 118,200 tons lower than the same period last year [5].