长江期货市场交易指引-20250819

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - Bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - Neutral [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - Neutral; Iron ore - Bullish with a bias; Coking coal and coke - Neutral [1][6][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - Neutral; Aluminum - Bullish on dips; Nickel - Bearish on rallies; Tin - Neutral; Gold - Bullish on dips; Silver - Bullish on dips [1][11][12] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - Bearish; Soda ash - Short 09, long 05; Caustic soda - Bullish with a bias; Styrene - Neutral; Rubber - Bullish with a bias; Urea - Neutral; Methanol - Neutral; Polyolefins - Bearish [1][19][21] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - Bullish with a bias; Apples - Bullish with a bias; Jujubes - Bullish with a bias [1][35] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs - Bearish on rallies; Eggs - Bearish on rallies; Corn - Neutral; Soybean meal - Bullish with limited upside; Oils and fats - Bullish with limited downside [1][37][39] Core Views - The global economic and political situation, including geopolitical events and policy announcements, significantly impacts the futures market. For example, geopolitical talks and central bank policies affect market sentiment and asset prices [6]. - Supply - demand fundamentals play a crucial role in determining the price trends of various commodities. Factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and consumption demand vary across different industries and influence price movements [20][28]. - Seasonal factors and market expectations, like the "Golden September and Silver October" season in the cotton market and the peak - off - peak seasons in the energy and chemical industries, also affect commodity prices [35]. Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - Index Futures: Trump's diplomatic activities and Chinese government's economic policies boost market sentiment. It is recommended to use the T + 0 feature of index futures, hold positions, and lock in profits during downward trends [6]. - Treasury Bonds: High - yield bonds may attract insurance funds. The bond market may recover slightly due to potential "looser" liquidity and a slight decline in equity market sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: After a sharp decline on Monday, prices are affected by external trade policies and internal supply - demand. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the RB2510 contract in the range of 3100 - 3300 [8]. - Iron Ore: With stable supply and strong demand, especially considering the National Day parade expectations, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 01 contract may face resistance at 840 - 850 [8]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal supply is tight but demand is weakening marginally. Coke supply may be affected by environmental policies, and demand remains strong. Both are expected to be volatile in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by macroeconomic data and supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum: Due to factors such as bauxite supply and production capacity changes, and considering the potential impact of trade policies, it is recommended to take long positions on dips [12]. - Nickel: With an overall oversupply in the medium and long term, it is recommended to take short positions on rallies [16]. - Tin: Supply is gradually improving, but demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to trade within a range, with the SHFE tin 09 contract in the range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by US economic data and geopolitical events, prices are expected to have support at lower levels. It is recommended to take long positions on dips [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak fundamentals suggest a short - term bearish trend, with the 01 contract in the range of 5000 - 5200 [20][21]. - Soda Ash: Due to supply - side concerns and inventory trends, it is recommended to short the 09 contract [33]. - Caustic Soda: With high supply and stable demand, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias, and the 09 contract may find support at 2500 [22]. - Styrene: Affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, prices are expected to be volatile, with the reference range of 7100 - 7400 [24]. - Rubber: After a price adjustment, with inventory changes and mixed market signals, it is expected to be bullish with a bias, in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27]. - Urea: Supply has increased, demand is mixed, and inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral, with support at 1700 - 1720 and resistance at 1820 - 1850 [28][29]. - Methanol: Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mixed, and port inventory is rising. Prices are expected to be neutral and may be slightly bearish [30]. - Polyolefins: Affected by cost and demand factors, prices are expected to be bearish, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global supply - demand conditions have improved, and with the arrival of the peak season, prices are expected to be bullish with a bias [35]. - Apples: With low inventory and growth - related impacts, prices are expected to remain high and volatile [36]. - Jujubes: Based on the growth situation and market supply, prices are expected to rise with a bias [36]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Supply pressure remains, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to take short positions on rallies and consider the long 05, short 03 arbitrage [39]. - Eggs: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to take short positions on rallies. If the culling process accelerates, there may be long - entry opportunities for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41]. - Corn: With sufficient supply and expected cost reduction, prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short on rebounds or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [42]. - Soybean Meal: US soybean supply - demand is tightening, but domestic supply is abundant in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions in a rolling manner and reduce positions on rallies [44]. - Oils and Fats: Although there are short - term correction risks, the long - term trend is bullish. It is recommended to take long positions on dips and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse spread [50][51].