宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250819

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of increasing supply and demand, but the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken. The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the significant increase in supply and the volatile adjustment of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have increased. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded to a high level this year, showing good demand resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, and the positive effect is weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased, the shipments of miners have risen significantly to a high level this year, the overseas ore supply has increased, and domestic ore production has also recovered, resulting in an increase in ore supply. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has good resilience, which supports the ore price. But the supply has increased, and the incremental space for demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore are expected to weaken, and considering the relatively high valuation, the ore price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment [2].