五矿期货贵金属日报-20250819

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold futures (Au) dropped 0.13% to 775.04 yuan/gram, while Shanghai silver futures (Ag) rose 0.16% to 9225.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to 3378.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.19% to 38.10 dollars/ounce [1]. - The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.34%, and the US dollar index was at 98.11 [1]. - In the detailed data, Au(T + D) closed at 774.80 yuan/gram, up 0.22% from the previous trading day; Ag(T + D) closed at 9227.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.42%. London gold was at 3332.40 dollars/ounce, down 0.09%, and London silver was at 37.73 dollars/ounce, down 1.53% [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors - There is an expectation of further easing of overseas geopolitical risks, which has a negative impact on gold prices. After the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, it was reported that Ukraine will buy weapons worth hundreds of billions of dollars from the US, and Trump will arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, leading to a phased release of overseas geopolitical risks [1]. - Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on the evening of August 22, Beijing time. The impact of imported inflation in the US is gradually emerging, and the Trump administration is putting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates due to US debt interest payments. Powell's speech will significantly affect the prices of gold and silver. There is a driving force for the expectation of an interest - rate cut to further increase in the fourth quarter when the new Fed chairperson will be announced [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Currently, in the precious metals strategy, it is recommended to wait for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to enter long positions in silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold futures is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver futures is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [2]. Group 4: Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data is provided, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, inventories, and historical quantiles for different markets such as COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc. For example, COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 3381.70 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 11.55 million lots, down 28.99% from the previous period [5]. - The report also presents various charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [10][19][51].