工业硅：关注市场情绪变动，多晶硅：关注今日市场消息-20250819

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [1]. - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to today's market news [2]. Content Summary by Category 1. Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Market: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price was 8,605 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 511,250 lots, a decrease of 31,867 lots; the open interest was 297,619 lots, an increase of 21,347 lots [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 425,548 lots, a decrease of 194,013 lots; the open interest was 135,517 lots, a decrease of 3,206 lots [2]. - Basis: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium for East - China Si5530 was +820 yuan/ton, for East - China Si4210 was +370 yuan/ton, and for Xinjiang 99 silicon was +120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium for N - type re - investment was - 5,740 yuan/ton [2]. - Price: - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Profit: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,496 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 3,175 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg [2]. - Inventory: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons, the industry inventory was 71.6 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.4 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 24.2 million tons [2]. - Raw Material Cost: - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton; the price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 970 yuan/ton; the price of petroleum coke (Maoming coke) was 1,400 yuan/ton, (Yangtze coke) was 1,740 yuan/ton; the price of graphite electrodes was 12,450 yuan/ton, and carbon electrodes was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of trichlorosilane was 3,375 yuan/ton, silicon powder (99 silicon) was 9,850 yuan/ton [2]. - Related Products in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry: - The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) was 1.54 yuan/piece, battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) was 0.285 yuan/watt, components (N - type - 210mm, centralized) was 0.674 yuan/watt, photovoltaic glass (3.2mm) was 18 yuan/cubic meter, and photovoltaic - grade EVA price was 9,800 yuan/ton [2]. - Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy: - Organic silicon: The price of DMC was 11,000 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit was - 688 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On August 15th, Inner Mongolia Electric Power Trading Center Co., Ltd. completed the first settlement of the new - energy full - market entry under Document No. 136, with 12,561 new - energy projects participating in market transactions. In July, the settlement mechanism electricity volume of Inner Mongolia's power multi - lateral trading market was 1.44 billion kWh, and the mechanism electricity price difference settlement cost was 120 million yuan, affecting the electricity price of all industrial and commercial users by about 0.005 yuan/kWh. The overall settlement average price of newly - entered distributed, decentralized, poverty - alleviation, and solar - thermal new - energy was 316 yuan/MWh, 33.1 yuan/MWh higher than the mechanism electricity price [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].