五矿期货农产品早报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean import cost is on a stable and slightly rising trend, but the upward momentum is questionable due to the global surplus of protein raw materials. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and it is expected to start destocking in September. The market has both bullish and bearish factors [2][4]. - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [6][9]. - The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [11][12]. - The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments. The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [17][19]. - The pig price is expected to remain stable. The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summaries by Directory Soybean/Meal - Important Information: The US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons. The Brazilian soybean premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, and the downstream inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of port soybeans converted to soybean meal and oil mill soybean meal is stable [2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest buying at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, and pay attention to the crushing profit, supply pressure, Sino - US tariff progress, and new supply - side drivers [4]. Oil - Important Information: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month. From August 1 - 15, the palm oil yield decreased by 1.78%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51%, and the production increased by 0.88%. Indonesia has confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations. The domestic spot basis of the three major oils is stable at a low level [6]. - Trading Strategy: The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory and strong prices. There is a possibility of price increase in the fourth - quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price remained unchanged. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons [11]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increasing imports and high valuation [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. The spot price increased slightly. In July 2025, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [14]. - Trading Strategy: The cotton price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, influenced by the USDA report and trade policies, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - Important Information: The national egg price has been adjusted with slight increases and decreases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion is moderate. The egg price is expected to be mostly stable with local adjustments [17][18]. - Trading Strategy: The egg supply is large, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, with opportunities to short after a rebound in the medium - term [19]. Pig - Important Information: The domestic pig price was mainly stable with local weakness. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the price is expected to remain stable [20]. - Trading Strategy: The market may oscillate in a range, with short - term focus on low - buying, attention to upside pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse - spread strategy for the far - month contracts [21].