粕类周报：粕类周报粕类扰动增多，盘面大幅走强-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has been performing strongly recently. The US soybean market is expected to have stronger support and may rise further if there is positive news. The South American market has limited short - term pressure, and the prices in Brazil and Argentina are generally firm [4]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market still faces significant pressure due to high soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates. The supply is expected to remain loose, and inventory pressure is likely to persist. The domestic rapeseed meal has risen significantly due to policy factors and is expected to remain strong if policies do not change much [4][5]. - The trading strategies include a bullish stance for single - sided trading, M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expanding the MRM05 spread, and buying call options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - International Market: The US soybean futures market has been strong due to the bullish monthly supply - demand report. In South America, Brazil's soybean prices have risen slightly despite a small decline after the US soybean price increase. Argentina's soybean prices are also firm, and so are the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil in both countries [4]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal spot market has high pressure with abundant supply and limited demand improvement. The domestic rapeseed meal has increased significantly because of policy - related restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [4][5]. - Trading Strategies: Adopt a bullish single - sided trading approach, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread long, expand the MRM05 spread, and buy call options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - US Soybeans: The US soybean market has been strong due to the monthly supply - demand report. Although the yield per acre was raised, the planting area was significantly reduced, tightening the new - crop supply. The old - crop crush was also increased by 1 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels, with high uncertainty. The US soybean may rebound in the short - term, and the support at the lower level is strong [9][11]. - South American Markets: In Brazil, soybean export prices have slightly declined, but the overall price has increased due to the US soybean price increase. The monthly supply - demand report slightly raised production, exports, and crush. The selling progress of farmers has improved, and the export target of 106 million tons is likely to be achieved. In Argentina, soybean prices are firm, and the pressure on exports has decreased [14]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean meal futures market has been strong due to cost - side factors, but the spot market has high pressure. The oil mill operating rate has increased due to sufficient soybean supply, and the demand has changed little. The inventory remains high, and the futures spread is expected to weaken [17]. - Domestic Rapeseed Meal: The domestic rapeseed meal futures market has risen significantly due to the policy decision to impose a deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports after an anti - dumping investigation. The market may remain strong if imports from Canada are completely stopped [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - International Market: The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crush, and weekly crush profits. It also presents Brazil's monthly soybean exports and crush, Argentina's soybean exports and monthly crush, and foreign soybean basis prices [24][27][29]. - Macro - factors: Exchange rates such as USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are involved, as well as international shipping freight rates. The freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China have all decreased slightly [37][42]. - Supply: The data shows the import and weekly crush of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [48]. - Demand: The data shows the提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in China [51]. - Inventory: The data shows the inventory of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal in China [55].