Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250819
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:46