宝城期货煤焦早报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and showing a slightly stronger trend; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation due to the divergence between bulls and bears [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in the range of oscillation; in the medium - term, it is oscillating and slightly stronger; and on the intraday basis, it is also oscillating and slightly stronger. The overall view is oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined and coke is operating at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On August 18, the main contract of coking coal dropped from a high level, closing at 1187.5 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.94%. The main contract of coke also dropped from a high level, closing at 1702 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.56% [5][6]. 3.2 Core Logic - For coking coal, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears, and the futures have entered a high - level oscillation pattern. After the "anti - involution" rectification starting from July 1, the coking coal market may continue to improve gradually. Through mild and orderly capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation in the industry is expected to gradually ease, and the market supply - demand relationship will move towards a more balanced direction. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the medium - and long - term price center still has an upward basis [5]. - For coke, since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the news of the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual domestic coking coal supply has not been significantly affected so far, market expectations have improved. After the phased adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than to fall [6].