Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term port inventory of methanol is accelerating, and the 01 contract is weak in the short - term under the premium situation, but remains in a mid - term shock pattern. The main reasons for the mid - term shock are the support of anti - involution policies, the strong fundamentals of the MA2601 contract in the fourth quarter, and the expected restart of some MTOs in September [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on August 19, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the trading volume was 438,253 lots, down 48,430 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 665,628 lots, up 42,183 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,968 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 1051.859 million yuan, down 130.759 million yuan; the basis was - 94, down 7; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 103, down 7 [1] - In the spot market, on August 19, 2025, the ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Shandong was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Spot News - The report does not provide specific content in this part Futures Research - As of August 13, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.0218 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 10.41%. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with 236,000 tons of visible unloading of foreign vessels and many non - visible unloading. The inventory in East China increased due to stable supply despite increased提货, and the inventory in South China increased significantly due to concentrated arrivals [3] - The trend strength of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]
甲醇：近端压力较大，弱势运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-19 01:41