生猪：现货弱势延续

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for live pigs continues to be weak. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume has been poor recently, and it is difficult to absorb market supply. The spot performance over the weekend was again below expectations, and there is a sentiment of panic selling. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The trend of closing the premium continues. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center. Short - term support for the LH2509 contract is at 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is at 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Prices: Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 14,990 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year. Futures prices: LH2509 is 13,640 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2511 is 13,820 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2601 is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For LH2509, trading volume is 7,834 lots, an increase of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 14,091 lots, a decrease of 1,630 lots from the previous day. For LH2511, trading volume is 35,708 lots, an increase of 15,263 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 71,193 lots, an increase of 6,351 lots from the previous day. For LH2601, trading volume is 13,123 lots, an increase of 3,215 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 47,783 lots, an increase of 1,038 lots from the previous day [3]. - Spreads: LH2509 basis is 140 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2511 basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH2601 basis is - 380 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year. LH9 - 11 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; LH11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with a range of [- 2,2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].