生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the pig price will have an oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce pig weight and providing some support for pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may have an oscillatory adjustment, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 6,351 lots today, with a position of about 71,200 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,820 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side thinks, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 11 - contract considering its slight premium over the spot price [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 18, the national live pig slaughter price was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from August 15. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6]. - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with August 15, with the decline ranging from 0.38% to 1.34% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 5 yuan or 3.7% compared with August 15 [6].