通胀前景不明，贵金属高位波动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is experiencing high - level fluctuations due to unclear inflation prospects. The price of precious metals is affected by factors such as the US inflation outlook, macro - data, and geopolitical situations. It is expected that precious metals will continue to fluctuate at high levels. If the precious metals maintain a bullish trend, gold has higher certainty due to its monetary and safe - haven attributes, while silver may have greater upside potential under the support of gold and abundant liquidity [3][8][72]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market Performance: London gold traded between $3405 - $3330 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.86%. London silver traded between $38.7 - $37.5, with a weekly decline of 0.86%. Shanghai gold traded between 789 - 773 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.52%. Shanghai silver traded between 9368 - 9135 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The US dollar index fell to the 97 - 98 range, with a weekly decline of 0.33%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded from its previous low, closing at 4.32% on Friday [4]. - Market Drivers: The market is trading around the US inflation outlook. The unexpected PPI data has increased concerns about inflation and dampened interest - rate cut expectations, which has hindered the rebound of precious metals. The possibility of a缓和 in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has also put pressure on precious metals [4]. - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, it is advisable to wait and see [11]. 2. Macro - level Data Tracking - US Economic Growth: The US GDP growth in the second quarter was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, a detailed analysis shows that the growth may be illusory. The significant decline in imports has inflated the net - export component, and the consumption and investment sectors are showing signs of weakness. Retail data is volatile, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations are also affected by tariffs [26][28]. - PMI Indicators: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8. Tariffs have brought price pressures and led to a contraction in orders and employment [33]. - Employment: The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July were 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downward, causing market panic and raising questions about data credibility [38]. - Inflation: The US CPI in July showed a moderate rebound, and the PPI reached a high since February. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be further transmitted in the future. Although some tariffs have been postponed or cancelled, the risk of stagflation has not been eliminated [40][42]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - ETF and CFTC Positions: The report presents the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but no specific analysis is provided [46]. - Gold Supply and Demand: In 2024, the total global gold supply increased by 1% to 4,974 tons, and the total demand increased by 1% to 4,554 tons. Investment demand reached a four - year high, while jewelry consumption hit a record low. Central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase, and investment, central - bank purchases, and technology demand are likely to be positive factors, while jewelry demand may be under pressure [50]. - Silver Supply and Demand: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, an increase of 2% year - on - year, and the demand was 36,208 tons, a decrease of 3% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 4,634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3,658 tons. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry, which has been growing rapidly, is likely to slow down [62]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold, especially developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India. China has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [60].