国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250819

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various commodities. Core Views - The overall market for energy and chemical commodities shows a mixed trend, with some commodities in a short - term or mid - term oscillation, while others face upward or downward pressure [2]. - The supply and demand relationship, cost factors, and policy environment are the main factors affecting the price trends of different commodities. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply increases while demand decreases, but terminal demand improvement may limit the downside space. The processing fee is under downward pressure. China's PX operating rate is 84.3% (+2.3%), and Asia's is 74% (+0.4%) [10]. - PTA: Supply is marginally tightened, and the price rebounded at the end of the session. The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage. Polyester operating rate is expected to increase to 91.5% in September [11]. - MEG: Supply increases, and it is in a range - bound market. The 9 - 1 spread should be operated within the - 50~0 range, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [11]. Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillatory state. The inventory in Qingdao area decreased slightly, and the cost support from overseas raw material prices weakened. The market lacks a clear direction [12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space is narrowing. In the short - term, the support from butadiene weakens, while in the medium - term, it is in a range - bound market due to policy support and low - chasing reluctance [16][18]. Asphalt - The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%, and the inventory increased by 3.2% [19][34]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound market. Cost decreases, supply pressure increases, and demand will improve gradually. Inventory provides some support [36][37]. PP - The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. Cost is weak, demand has no obvious highlights, and supply pressure increases [40][41]. Caustic Soda - It should be treated bullishly, but attention should be paid to the near - month warehouse receipts. Demand is expanding, and export support is strong, but supply may be affected by the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [44]. Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillatory state. Supply lacks elasticity, port inventory is at a medium - high level, and demand is weak [47][50]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the price is slightly weak [55]. Methanol - The near - end pressure is large, and it is in a weak operation. Port inventory accumulates rapidly, but there is support at low levels due to policy and fundamental factors [58][61]. Urea - Urea is in a range - bound operation. Inventory increases, demand is slow, but short - selling at low levels is reluctant due to policy and market uncertainty [63][65]. Styrene - Styrene is in a profit - compression state. It is mainly oscillatory in the short - term, with downstream inventory accumulating and the peak - season restocking power weakening [66][67]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. Supply increases, and demand is average. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillatory in the short - term [68][70]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term valuation is reasonable, and it is in an oscillatory state. - Propylene: Supply and demand tighten, and the price has certain support [72]. PVC - PVC is in a weak trend. The anti - dumping tax in India affects exports, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [79]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The market is weakly oscillatory, and the short - term weakness continues. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Volatility intensifies, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the external market is temporarily stable [82]. Container Freight Index (European Route) - It is in an oscillatory consolidation state, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. Freight rates show different trends, with European routes decreasing and US - West routes increasing [84].