国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250819

Report Overview - Date: August 19, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report Core Views - Palm Oil: The origin has a prosperous supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2][6] - Soybean Oil: Bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2][7] - Soybean Meal: The overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][12] - Soybean One: It will fluctuate [2][12] - Corn: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][20] - Cotton: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2][25] - Eggs: The long - term outlook is weak [2][30] - Pigs: The spot market remains weak [2][32] - Peanuts: The near - term is strong, and the long - term is weak [2][38] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,534 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase and a night - closing price of 9,620 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change and a night - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions also had corresponding changes [7] - News: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and the expected export volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month [8][10] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil is 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean One - Fundamentals: DCE soybean one 2511 had a daily - closing price of 4044 yuan/ton with no change, and DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - closing price of 3155 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different quotes [12] - News: On August 18, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the same as last week [12][14] - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean one have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - Fundamentals: The important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc. remained unchanged. The futures contracts C2509 and C2511 had different price changes and trading volume and position changes [15] - News: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [16] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 16.24 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5672 yuan/ton [20] - News: Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar import and production data in different periods were also provided [20][21][22] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [23] Cotton - Fundamentals: CF2601 had a daily - closing price of 14,125 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. The spot prices of different cotton types in different regions had small increases [25] - News: The domestic cotton spot trading improved slightly, and the cotton yarn market trading also improved slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season [26] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [27] Eggs - Fundamentals: The futures prices of eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 decreased. The spot prices of eggs in different regions had different changes [30] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [30] Pigs - Fundamentals: The Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13780 yuan/ton, 13550 yuan/ton, and 14990 yuan/ton respectively. The futures prices of different contracts also decreased [34] - Market Logic: In August, the group's planned slaughter volume increased, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract were given [36] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1 [35] Peanuts - Fundamentals: The important spot prices of peanuts in different regions remained unchanged. The futures contracts PK510 and PK511 had small price decreases [38] - Spot Market: The new peanut trading in different regions had different situations, and the new peanuts were expected to be listed in late September [39] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [41]