国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply disruptions combined with positive demand may lead to a continued strong - side oscillation [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to today's market news [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,340, down 260 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010, unchanged from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, import prices, and various spreads [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Multiple events including potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental violations, mining quota adjustments, and production suspensions in Indonesia [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: Various contract closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of lithium carbonate showed significant changes over different time intervals. Prices of related products in the lithium - salt industry chain also changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and India proposed to reduce commodity and service tax rates for certain vehicles [11]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: Data on contract prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and various costs, prices, and profits in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries were presented. There were also changes in inventory levels [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The Inner Mongolia Power Trading Center completed the first settlement for new - energy full - market entry, with details on new - entry projects, settlement prices, and cost impacts [16]. - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon has a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), and polysilicon has a trend intensity of 1 (slightly bullish) [16].