首席点评：政策红利与市场信心共振，A股迈入百万亿新时代

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, driven by top - level policies and financial policies, with significant inflow of incremental funds and strong economic resilience [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, in a policy window period. There may be more incremental policies in the second half of the year, and external risks are gradually easing. The stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating and structural differentiation exists [2][11]. - Precious metals may show an oscillating trend under the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with long - term drivers still providing support for gold [3][19]. - The trend of crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC production increase situation, and the unemployment rate in the US may rise in August [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Varieties - Stock Index: The US three major indexes fluctuated slightly. The previous trading day saw an increase in the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the real - estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan on August 15. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - Precious Metals: Last week, unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Although there are factors supporting the price, the current high price makes gold hesitant to rise, and gold and silver may oscillate [3][19]. - Crude Oil: SC night trading rose 0.7%. The US - Russia talks over the weekend had no clear conclusion. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to 4.3% in August, and attention should be paid to OPEC production increase [4][13]. b. Main News of the Day - International News: US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, and a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held. Trump also said he would not rule out sending US troops to participate in peace - keeping missions in Ukraine [5]. - Domestic News: Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the real - estate market [6]. - Industry News: The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including starting to formulate the DRG 3.0 grouping plan, improving the maternity insurance system, and exploring national unified follow - up procurement after the expiration of the centralized procurement agreement [7]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial: - Stock Index: Similar to the key varieties part, the market is in a favorable period, but sector rotation and differentiation need attention [2][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds continued to fall. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.778%. The bond market may continue to be under pressure, and the price difference between new and old bonds and long - and short - term bonds may widen [12]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Crude Oil: As mentioned before, pay attention to OPEC production increase and the US unemployment rate [4][13]. - Methanol: Methanol night trading fell 1.04%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory continued to accumulate. It is short - term bullish [14][15]. - Rubber: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may oscillate and fall [16]. - Polyolefins: The polyolefin futures were weak. The market is still mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory digestion is slow. Pay attention to the autumn restocking market and cost changes [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both glass and soda ash futures are in the process of inventory digestion. The prices have stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [18]. - Metals: - Precious Metals: As described above, affected by inflation data and other factors, it shows an oscillating trend [3][19]. - Copper: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to US tariffs and other factors [20][21]. - Zinc: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as US tariffs and supply - demand [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, demand is also growing, and inventory is in a complex state. There is a risk of correction after the previous rise, and short - selling should be cautious [23]. - Black Metals: - Iron Ore: The demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - Steel: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The market is under pressure, and the multi - empty game is intensifying [26][27]. - Agricultural Products: - Protein Meal: The US Department of Agriculture adjusted the soybean production forecast, and the soybean futures inventory is tightening. The price of the domestic protein meal has strong support [28]. - Oils and Fats: The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bullish impact on the market. Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - Sugar: The international sugar market is expected to be oscillating and bearish, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, and is expected to be oscillating [30]. - Cotton: The ICE US cotton price rose. The domestic cotton market supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend may be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. - Shipping Index: - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC oscillated slightly. The SCFIS European line price decreased. The market is concerned about the off - season freight rate decline rate and the support of deep discounts [32][33].