五矿期货文字早评-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, and the overall direction is to go long on dips, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [7]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends and investment opportunities [10][11][12] etc. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - News: Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market, A - share market value exceeds 100 trillion yuan, some companies may apply for suspension, and there is a peak in online consultations at securities brokerages [2]. - Futures basis ratio: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods. The market may be volatile in the short - term but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. There are events such as the stock market reaching a 10 - year high, treasury cash management deposit bidding, and international meetings [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices show different trends. Geopolitical risks and Fed's policy are important factors affecting prices. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech and then make decisions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices are oscillating due to factors such as the rebound of the US dollar index and increased domestic inventory. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for macro - drivers [10]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices are falling due to the expansion of the US steel - aluminum tax scope and domestic inventory accumulation. The price may be adjusted in the short - term [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices face a large downward risk due to factors such as increased domestic social inventory and weak downstream consumption [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry and the increase in social inventory [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices are under pressure to correct in the short - term but have support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on significant dips [15]. Tin - Market: Tin prices are expected to oscillate as supply is tight in the short - term and demand is weak, but the situation may change with the resumption of production in Myanmar [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Lithium prices are likely to rise due to the approaching traditional peak season and improved supply - demand expectations. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies due to the over - capacity situation [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term due to factors such as price resistance and weak demand [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market: Casting aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The demand for rebar is weak and the inventory is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is improving but the inventory is still rising. The market may return to the supply - demand logic if the demand cannot be repaired [23][24]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices are slightly adjusted. The supply is increasing and the demand is slightly rising, but the terminal demand is weakening [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price may rise if there are real estate policies, otherwise, supply contraction is needed [27][28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may weaken in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand [33][34]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely. The increase in warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of capacity integration are new concerns [35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Rubber prices are oscillating. The market has different views on the rise and fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [37][39]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil has the potential to rise but the upward space is limited in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40]. Methanol - Market: Methanol supply pressure is large, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Market: Urea supply is loose, demand is general, and the price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [42]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices may rise with the cost side due to factors such as the repair of BZN spread and the reduction of port inventory [43]. PVC - Market: PVC has a strong supply - weak demand and high - valuation situation. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the short - term valuation may decline [46]. PTA - Market: PTA is expected to accumulate inventory, and the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the peak season [47]. Para - xylene - Market: PX is expected to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support below but limited upward space. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices may follow crude oil to oscillate strongly in July under the background of weak supply - demand [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices are stable. The market may oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the medium - term [53]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply is large, and the price may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: Soybean meal prices are affected by factors such as US soybean production and import costs. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [55][56]. Fats and Oils - Market: Fats and oils prices are oscillating strongly. The price is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the low inventory in Southeast Asia, but the upward space is limited [57][58]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices are expected to decline due to the increase in international and domestic supply [59]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to factors such as the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs, but the downstream consumption is general [60].