宝城期货原油早报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a bullish bias" respectively, and it is expected to run with a bullish bias [1]. - After the release of the previous bearish sentiment, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract stopped falling and stabilized on the night session of Monday this week. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Time - cycle Explanation: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. The distinction of "oscillation with a bullish/ bearish bias" only applies to the intraday view [1][4]. - Price Calculation Rule: For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - Fluctuation Classification: A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bearish bias", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillation with a bullish bias", and an increase greater than 1% is a rise [3]. - Driving Logic of Crude Oil Price: The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium has been given back [5].