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棕榈油:产地供需两旺,低多为主,豆油:利多交易充分,高位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-19 02:14

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low levels; for soybean oil, the bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 9,534 yuan/ton, up 1.49%, and 9,620 yuan/ton at night, up 0.90%; the soybean oil main contract was 8,548 yuan/ton during the day, down 0.16%, and remained the same at night; the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,852 yuan/ton during the day, up 0.46%, and 9,886 yuan/ton at night, up 0.35%. The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,523 ringgit/ton during the day, up 1.00%, and 4,566 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.15%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was 53.29 cents/pound during the day, up 0.11% [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 232,837 lots, with an increase of 114,971 lots, and the open interest was 148,929 lots, a decrease of 23,676 lots; the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 146,569 lots, an increase of 84,495 lots, and an open interest of 191,498 lots, a decrease of 30,549 lots; the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 44,996 lots, a decrease of 21,431 lots, and an open interest of 46,810 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots [3] - Spot Prices: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan; the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,110 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [3] - Basis: The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton; that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 262 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 108 yuan/ton [3] - Price Spreads: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil main contracts was 242 yuan/ton; that between soybean oil and palm oil main contracts was - 1,068 yuan/ton; the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 32 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 26 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - According to the data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4] - SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 was 537,183 tons, a 34.5% increase compared to the same period last month [6] - The weekly crop growth report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday morning showed that as of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and the same period last year. The flowering rate of soybeans was 95%, up from 91% the previous week, higher than 94% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The pod - setting rate of soybeans was 82%, up from 71% the previous week, higher than 80% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with different levels of strength classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7]