20250819申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are at play, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, while downstream demand shows a mixed picture. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and this year's concentrate supply has improved significantly. Domestic demand is also a mix of positive and negative factors, and the same external factors need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Current concentrate processing fees are generally at a low level, challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power and automobile industries growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,950 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 170 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,733 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 96.75 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 155,800 tons, with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year's concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,777 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 8.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 76,325 tons, with a daily change of - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.05 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 479,550 tons, with a daily change of - 125 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,270 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,151 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 194.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 211,662 tons, with a daily change of 522 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 155 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,971 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 44.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 261,100 tons, with a daily change of - 575 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,020 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 420 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,702 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 89.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 1,655 tons, with a daily change of - 175 tons [2].