软商品日报：巴西前两周出口数据缩减，白糖短期震荡运行-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, since July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold drink consumption drives a seasonal increase in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have climbed significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are declining, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1]. Data Overview 1. Price Changes - Foreign Market Quotes: From August 17 to 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.47 dollars to 16.24 dollars, a decline of 1.40%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.48 dollars to 67.84 dollars, a rise of 0.53% [3]. - Spot Prices: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980.0 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5855.0 yuan, a decline of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.12%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, a rise of 0.33% [3]. 2. Spread Changes - Sugar Spreads: From August 17 to 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased from 42.0 to 46.0, a rise of 9.52%; SR05 - 09 increased from - 118.0 to - 110.0, a decline of 6.78%; SR09 - 01 decreased from 76.0 to 64.0, a decline of 15.79% [3]. - Cotton Spreads: CF01 - 05 increased from 30.0 to 40.0, a rise of 33.33%; CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255.0; CF09 - 01 decreased from - 285.0 to - 295.0, a decline of 3.51% [3]. 3. Basis Changes - Sugar Basis: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased from 196.0 to 183.0, a decline of 6.63%; the basis of sugar 05 decreased from 238.0 to 229.0, a decline of 3.78%; the basis of sugar 09 decreased from 120.0 to 119.0, a decline of 0.83% [3]. - Cotton Basis: The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1096.0 to 1109.0, a rise of 1.19%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1126.0 to 1149.0, a rise of 2.04%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1381.0 to 1404.0, a rise of 1.67% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - Import Price: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.4 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. - Profit Space: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1495.0 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. 5. Option Information - For the SR601C5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.0832, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.18. For the SR601P5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.084. For the CF601C14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1094, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61. For the CF601P14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1099 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 to 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17104.0 to 16931.0, a decline of 1.01%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7829.0 to 7762.0, a decline of 0.86% [3] Company Information - The report is issued by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19 - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, holding various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [1][2][8]