商品期货早班车-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the futures market have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the precious metals market, the de - dollarization logic supports gold, while silver's situation is affected by policies and inventory. In the base metals market, copper is recommended for temporary observation, aluminum has short - term and long - term outlooks, and zinc is suggested for short - selling. In the agricultural products market, various crops and livestock have their own supply - demand situations and trading suggestions. In the energy and chemical market, different products also have corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand and inventory conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: On Monday, COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% to $3378.60 per ounce. After the "Trudeau - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin, and the market is waiting for the Jackson Hole central bank meeting. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small inflow. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1201 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory remained at 36 tons. It is recommended to go long on gold as the de - dollarization logic remains unchanged [1] - Silver: The inventory situation of silver in different regions changed. The global largest silver ETF - iShares' holding increased by 285 tons to 15356 tons. Due to the rumor of canceling the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand, silver inventory decreased. It is recommended to temporarily observe [1] Base Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The market has a hawkish expectation for the Jackson Hole meeting, and the US dollar index strengthened. The domestic weekly inventory increased by 0.81 tons, and the spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China slightly strengthened. It is recommended to temporarily observe [2] - Aluminum: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.82% to 20770 yuan per ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. In the short term, the aluminum price faces downward pressure due to tariff policies, but in the long term, it may rise due to factors such as the US interest - rate cut expectation, low inventory, and peak - season demand. It is recommended to observe in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [2] - Alumina: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.72% to 3182 yuan per ton. The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3150 price support in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [2][3] - Zinc: The closing price of the zinc 2509 contract decreased by 0.73% to 22340 yuan per ton. The supply increased significantly, and the processing fee jumped. The consumption off - season deepened, and the inventory in some regions increased while the LME inventory decreased. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [3] - Lead: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract decreased by 0.45% to 16775 yuan per ton. The production of primary lead increased, but the operating rate of recycled lead decreased and was in a loss state. The consumption peak season did not materialize, and the inventory showed a cumulative trend. It is recommended to operate within a range [3] - Industrial Silicon: The main 11 - contract price decreased by 200 yuan per ton to 8605 yuan per ton. The supply side had new furnaces opened, and the social inventory decreased slightly while the warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand side had a slight increase in the operating rate of polysilicon and stable production of silicone. The downstream demand of aluminum alloy entered the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [3] - Lithium Carbonate: The main LC2511 contract price increased by 2.7% to 89240 yuan per ton. The supply side had a mine shutdown, and the supply is expected to be in short - supply from August to October. The demand side showed a peak season for production scheduling, and the inventory decreased. The base difference weakened, and the capital in the lithium carbonate variety increased. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3] - Polysilicon: The main 11 - contract price decreased by 460 yuan per ton to 52280 yuan per ton. The supply side had a slight increase in production, and there is an expectation of resuming production. The demand side had stable production scheduling in August, but the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter is pessimistic. The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and it is recommended to go long with a small position on dips [4] Black Industry - Rebar: The main 2510 - contract price decreased by 41 yuan per ton to 3156 yuan per ton. The steel inventory increased, and the supply - demand of building materials was weakly balanced. The futures discount of rebar was slightly high. It is recommended to hold the 10/1 reverse spread, and the reference range for RB10 is 3120 - 3190 [4] - Iron Ore: The main 2601 - contract price decreased by 10.5 yuan per ton to 772 yuan per ton. The supply - demand of iron ore was moderately strong but showed a weakening trend. The futures maintained a forward discount structure. It is recommended to observe, and the reference range for I01 is 740 - 790 [4] - Coking Coal: The main 2601 - contract price decreased by 61 yuan per ton to 1189 yuan per ton. The supply - demand of coking coal was relatively loose but improving. The futures premium was high. It is recommended to observe and hold previous short positions, and the reference range for JM01 is 1160 - 1220 [4] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The overnight CBOT soybean price slightly decreased. The supply side has a near - term contraction in US soybean production and a long - term expected increase in South American production. The demand side has a shift from South America to the US, but there are differences in the new - crop export demand of US soybeans. The short - term US soybeans are strong but in a fluctuating range, and the domestic soybean market follows the international cost. It is necessary to pay attention to the yield and tariff policies later [5] - Corn: The 2511 - contract of corn continued to be weak. Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increases supply. The corn price is expected to be weak. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [5] - Sugar: The 01 - contract of Zhengzhou sugar increased by 0.37% to 5678 yuan per ton. The Brazilian production is the main factor affecting the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [5] - Cotton: The overnight US cotton price increased. The US cotton's good - quality rate improved, and the Indian cotton's ending inventory increased. The domestic cotton price fluctuated upward. It is recommended to go long on dips and adopt a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,500 yuan per ton [5] - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil price increased. The supply side has a seasonal increase in production, and the demand side has an increase in export. The near - term inventory is accumulating, and the long - term is expected to be tight. It is recommended to be long - biased in the oil market and pay attention to the production in the producing areas and bio - diesel policies [5] - Eggs: The 2510 - contract of eggs was weak, and the spot price increased. The egg - laying rate decreased seasonally, and the demand may increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient. After continuous decline, the futures are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [5][6] - Hogs: The 2511 - contract of hogs was weak, and the spot price slightly decreased. The consumption is recovering, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to observe the futures after the continuous decline of the spot price [6] - Apples: The price of the main apple contract increased by 0.51% to 8230 yuan per ton. The price of early - maturing apples is high at first and then low, and there is a price difference between different regions. The current market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to observe [6] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The main LLDPE contract fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an increase in domestic production and a possible decrease in imports. The demand side has an improvement in the agricultural film season. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices [7] - PVC: The V01 - contract of PVC decreased by 1.1% to 5055 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory is accumulating. The trading driver is not clear, and it is recommended to observe [7] - Glass: The fg01 - contract of glass decreased by 0.5% to 1211 yuan per ton. The supply side has a small expectation of resuming production, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand side has low downstream orders. The price is expected to have limited decline, and it is recommended to observe [8] - Styrene: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly. The supply side has an expected increase in inventory, and the demand side has large losses for downstream enterprises and high finished - product inventory. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices [8] - Soda Ash: The sa01 - contract of soda ash decreased by 1.5% to 1387 yuan per ton. The supply side has a high operating rate and high upstream inventory. The demand side has an increase in photovoltaic glass production. There is an expectation of production reduction, and it is recommended to observe [8]