Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Domestic economic growth is showing a marginal slowdown, but there's no need for excessive anxiety as a package of economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect, and more policies may be introduced if economic data continues to decline. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [1]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the US economic downturn risk has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole meeting will be an important window to observe policy trends. The US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [2]. - The stock index was extremely active yesterday, but risk management is necessary. The market's short - term upward trend is driven by funds, sentiment, and a structural market, but it should not deviate from the economic fundamentals in the long term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory - Macro: Track domestic high - frequency economic data. Pay attention to US economic data changes and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The stock - exchange linkage has not been achieved. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1792 at 16:30, up 31 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - Stock Index: Yesterday, the stock index rose significantly with large trading volume, and the market index reached a new high again. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 5195.51 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Precious Metals: Focus on the global central bank meeting. Precious metals are in a narrow - range shock. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, and the short - term is in an overall shock adjustment [8][9][10]. - Copper: The price dropped slightly on Monday, and it may continue to fluctuate or be slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be in a strong - shock state; alumina is in a weak - shock state; cast aluminum alloy is in a strong - shock state [12][13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is in a weak - shock state [13]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The short - term trend may continue to fluctuate [14][15]. - Tin: It is mainly in a shock state, relatively strong [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The upside is limited, and profit - taking is recommended [17][18]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a narrow - range shock in the short term and is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state in the long term. Polysilicon's supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the component tender on Friday [19][20]. - Lead: It is in a narrow - range shock [20][21]. Summary by Directory - Gold & Silver: The market was in a narrow - range shock on Monday. The market is focusing on the global central bank meeting's guidance on the Fed's future interest - rate cut prospects. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3378 per ounce, down 0.14% [8]. - Copper: In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products increased by 35.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 10.0% year - on - year [11]. - Aluminum: On August 15, the US expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to be in a strong - shock state, with a price range of 20300 - 20800 [12]. - Zinc: The zinc price was in a weak - shock state on the previous trading day. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak [13]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - drive has weakened, and the fundamentals are showing signs of deterioration. However, the supply contraction expectation still exists, and the price decline is limited. The rebar 10 contract is expected to have support around 3100, and the hot - rolled coil around 3350 [24]. - Iron Ore: The shipment has increased significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is limited [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term market speculation sentiment has cooled down. In the long - term, the market may fluctuate widely with emotions. The subsequent focus is on the changes in the finished product inventory [26][27]. Summary by Directory - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonality. However, the absolute value of the total steel inventory is not high, and the cost support still exists [24]. - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipment has increased significantly, and the price is oscillating downward. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is not very pessimistic [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal supply is in a tight - balance state, and the coke supply is still tight in the short term. The market may fluctuate widely with emotions [26][27]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Crude Oil: The overnight market rebounded slightly and continued to adjust weakly. The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the medium - term risk of a downward break has increased [29][30]. - LPG: The fundamentals have not changed much, and it maintains a loose situation [31][32]. - PTA - PX: In the short - term, follow the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, do long the PTA processing fee at low levels [33][34]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The peak - season expectation is emerging. Ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought at low levels, and the bottle - chip processing fee can be traded in a range [35][36][37]. - Methanol: Wait for the opportunity to go long. Consider closing 09 short positions near the reverse - flow window, and wait for the best buying point for the 01 contract [37]. - PP: It will continue to be in a shock pattern. Focus on the demand side and cost - end changes [38][39][40]. - PE: It will be in a shock pattern in the short term, and the subsequent trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand [40][41]. - PVC: The situation remains weak, and it is recommended to be short - allocated [41][42]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: They are in a range - shock state. For styrene, consider shorting the spread between pure benzene and styrene at high levels [43][44]. - Fuel Oil: It is still weak, and the short - term drive is downward [45]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The short - term is recommended to be on the sidelines [46]. - Asphalt: It follows the cost - end and is in a weak - shock state [47]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: The upside is under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the 15700 - 16100 range [47][48][49]. - Urea: It is in a range - shock state, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [49][50]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They follow the shock. Pay attention to the cost - end price fluctuations for soda ash, policy guidance for glass, and downstream demand for caustic soda [50][51][52][53]. - Pulp: The upward momentum is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. Summary by Directory - Crude Oil: The overnight market rebounded slightly. The geopolitical situation is cooling down, and the potential support for crude oil is weakening [29][30]. - LPG: The supply is still loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level [31]. - PTA - PX: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee is at a historical low. Do long the PTA processing fee at low levels [33][34].
金融期货早评-20250819
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-19 02:37