国泰君安期货所长早读-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q2 monetary policy implementation report indicates that there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels, and promoting service consumption can help boost domestic demand [8]. - The hog market is under pressure with an oversupply situation, and the 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish, with short - term contracts showing some resilience and long - term contracts facing potential adjustments [11]. - Various commodities have different trends, such as gold and silver being affected by PPI data, copper lacking driving forces and oscillating, and zinc facing downward pressure [13][17][22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Central Bank Policy and Consumption - The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes that promoting service consumption by improving high - quality service supply is important. In 2024, the service consumption proportion in residents' per - capita consumption expenditure was about 46.1%, with significant growth potential [8]. 3.2 Hog Market - Since July, leading hog groups have increased supply and reduced weight, causing the spot price to decline. The market's previous bullish expectations have failed, and there is an oversupply situation. The 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. 3.3 Bond Market - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The central bank's policy emphasizes "continuing easing" and "structural adjustment." Short - term contracts have some resilience, while long - term contracts may face adjustments due to inflation expectations, macro - policies, and equity market risk preferences [11]. 3.4 Commodity Market - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are affected by PPI data. Gold and silver prices declined slightly, and their trend intensities are - 1 [13][17][20]. - Base Metals: - Copper: Lacks driving forces and oscillates. US 7 - month PPI growth and changes in Chilean copper production and China's copper imports affect the market [22]. - Zinc: Faces downward pressure, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][25][26]. - Lead: LME inventory reduction provides some support for prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][28][29]. - Tin: Oscillates within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][32][33]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum's volatility converges, alumina's center of gravity moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are 0, and that of alumina is - 1 [13][35][37]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel oscillates narrowly based on fundamentals, and stainless steel oscillates due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][38][42]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Carbonate Lithium: Supply disruptions and improving demand may lead to a continued bullish oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [13][43][45]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment changes, and polysilicon requires attention to market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [13][46][49]. - Iron Ore: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend intensity is 1 [13][51][52]. - Steel Products: Rebar and hot - rolled coils oscillate widely, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][54][58]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon oscillates weakly due to weak sector sentiment, and silicomanganese oscillates widely with a firm spot price. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][59][61]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both oscillate at high levels, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][62][64]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][65][68]. - Petrochemicals: Paraxylene is in a short - term oscillating market with increased supply and decreased demand but improved terminal demand. PTA has a weak reality and strong expectations, suitable for a monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG oscillates within a range, and attention should be paid to terminal demand improvement [13][69].