Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advisable [11][12]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost. Each commodity has its own specific investment suggestions, including paying attention to callbacks for buying opportunities, short - term observation, and taking corresponding strategies based on price trends and fundamentals [13][23][25]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so be cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures declined slightly. Policy changes are the main factor in the short - term, and the mid - term is expected to return to the supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downturn suppresses the price of rebar. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. Policy is the main factor in the short - term. The supply - demand pattern is currently strong but may weaken in the mid - term. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined significantly. The policy has affected supply, and there is still positive support for prices. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon contract rose, and the silicon - iron contract fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, production is increasing, and demand recovery is weak. There may be short - term supply surpluses. Consider long positions at low levels after price corrections [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low. The "Double - Putin" talks may lead to European and Ukrainian participation in negotiations, which will put pressure on crude oil. CFTC data shows a bearish sentiment. The price is expected to be weak, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil showed a strong upward trend. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased significantly, which supports the price. The strategy is to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Pay attention to opportunities for a rebound after stabilization [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and supply - side disruptions continue. Pay attention to long - position opportunities [28][29]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC declined. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. It is expected to continue bottom - range oscillations [30][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the mid - term view is bullish [32][34]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may be adjusted in a range [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may be adjusted in a range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply increase may suppress the price, but the demand may improve. Consider trading in a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The device maintenance has increased, inventory is stable, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash declined. Supply is increasing, demand is general, and it is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass declined. The production line is stable, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. In the short - term, consider short - positions, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. Supply fluctuates little, and consumption and prices may be under pressure due to the use of imported ores. The market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [45][46]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp declined. Supply contraction expectations dominate the sentiment, but demand improvement is uncertain. There is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The trading logic has shifted, and the mine - permit event is uncertain. Light - position operations are recommended for non - participants [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and copper prices are oscillating. Downstream enterprises purchase as needed. Consider long - position opportunities [51][52][53]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, and consumption is not optimistic. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply of primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and the consumption is not optimistic. There is pressure on the upper side [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The U.S. soybean's excellent - rate is high, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Consider taking long - position exits at high levels and then long - positions at support levels [56][57]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil rose. Malaysian exports have increased, and domestic imports have also increased. Consider holding long - positions lightly [58][59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products' prices changed. The domestic supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing and holding long - positions [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but short - term reports are positive. Prices are expected to be strong [63][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly. Overseas production is expected to be high, and domestic imports are large before October. It is recommended to observe [66][67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction is falsified, and there is a slight increase in production. It is recommended to observe [69][71][72]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short - term. Consider an anti - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices rose. Egg supply is expected to increase in August, and consumption is not as expected. Consider stopping profit on anti - spreads and then observing [75][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The short - term domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but new - season corn has a high - yield expectation, so it is recommended to observe. Corn starch follows the corn market [77][78][79]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures were flat. Log spot prices are strong, demand is slightly better than arrivals, and short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be supported [80][81][82].
西南期货早间评论-20250819
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-08-19 02:35