周度经济观察：大风起兮云飞扬-20250819

Group 1: Economic Overview - July industrial added value year-on-year was 5.7%, a significant drop of 1.1 percentage points from June, indicating a cooling industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in July saw a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, a sharp drop of 5.2 percentage points from June, marking a historical low[6] - Real estate investment in July decreased by 17% year-on-year, down 4.1 percentage points from June, with new construction area also declining by 15.4%[10] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continuous decline in consumption growth[12] - The manufacturing investment year-on-year in July was -0.3%, a significant drop of 5.4 percentage points from June, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" policies[8] - The private investment year-on-year growth in July was -7.3%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, closely mirroring the manufacturing investment trend[8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The equity market has entered a bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3700 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high, driven by increased retail investor participation[18] - Bond market yields are rising, with the potential for further increases due to low absolute yield levels and market adjustments, indicating a need to monitor risks from concentrated sell-offs[21] - The overall financing in July showed a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with government bond financing being the main driver, while corporate loan demand remains weak[14]