碳酸锂日评：碳酸锂周度产量不降反升-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 18, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The market showed rigid - demand procurement, and the basis discount widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand strengthened, with the profit margin expanding, lithium carbonate production rebounding, downstream demand rising, and social inventory being depleted. However, it is necessary to guard against the "reversal" sentiment decline. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The operation suggestion is short - term range operation and appropriate purchase of options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Closing Prices: On August 18, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 89,300.00 yuan/ton, 89,280.00 yuan/ton, 89,240.00 yuan/ton, and 89,240.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to previous days [3] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures on August 18 was 1,036,328.00 lots, an increase of 167,517.00 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 421,106.00 lots, an increase of 19,967.00 lots [3] - Inventory: The inventory on August 18 was 23,555.00 tons, an increase of 70.00 tons from the previous day [3] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 20.00 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 40.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0.00 yuan/ton [3] - Basis: The basis of the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was - 4,640.00 yuan/ton on August 18 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978.00 US dollars/ton on August 18, an increase of 38.00 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,385.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.00 yuan/ton [3] - Lithium Salt Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 84,600.00 yuan/ton on August 18, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 82,300.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton [3] - Other Lithium - Related Product Prices: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - based materials, and negative electrode materials also showed different degrees of changes [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Information - Supply: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons in total, with the inventory of smelters at 49,693 tons, showing a decreasing trend [3] - Demand: In the downstream, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The production of cobalt - based lithium decreased in August, while the production of manganese - based lithium increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.4 Company News - Nengdongli stated on the interactive platform on August 18 that since the self - operation of its Lijiagou lithium mine, the operation has been good, and it is currently in the production - capacity climbing stage. De'ayi Industry successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium salts in July 2025 [3] - Australian Covalent Lithium Company started producing lithium hydroxide at its 50,000 - ton/year Kwinana refinery on August 15, confirming that the commissioning has entered the trial - production stage, but its expansion plan has been shelved [3]