黑色建材日报：市场情绪回落，价格震荡运行-20250819

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal: Sideways [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Steam Coal: No specific strategy provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has declined, and prices are fluctuating. The steel market needs to compress profits to control supply and reconstruct the supply - demand balance, but the cost support is strong, so the price adjustment space is limited. The iron ore supply has increased, but the demand is also resilient, and the long - term supply is still relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply and downstream demand, and attention should be paid to supply recovery and downstream restocking. The steam coal market has a short - term price fluctuation due to supply contraction and long - term supply is in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,419 yuan/ton. The national inventory of building materials was 4.4259 million tons, a 6.08% week - on - week increase, and the national inventory of hot - rolled coils was 1.9654 million tons, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was average, and speculative demand was insufficient. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply through profit compression, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price fluctuated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total port trading volume was 1.003 million tons, a 5.02% week - on - week decrease, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.04 million tons, a 39.71% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 3.599 million tons to 34.066 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 0.947 million tons to 24.766 million tons [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply increased, and the demand was resilient. The port and in - plant inventories increased, and the berthing volume decreased significantly. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction was limited; in the long term, the supply was relatively loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. Coke started the seventh round of price increase. The price of imported Mongolian coking coal was stable at 980 - 1020 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply of coking coal was tight, and some mines had inventory accumulation. The supply of coke increased insufficiently, and the inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to supply recovery, downstream restocking, and macro - policy guidance [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, the supply tightened due to concentrated mine overhauls, and the price rose. At ports, the market sentiment declined, and the trading was sluggish. The import coal had a price advantage, and the downstream procurement was active [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply in production areas contracted, and the short - term price fluctuated. In the long term, the supply was in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] - Strategy: No specific strategy provided