聚烯烃日报：下游刚需偏弱，聚烯烃窄幅震荡-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Upstream supply of polyolefins is high, but the supply pressure of PE is expected to ease due to planned maintenance of some PE devices, while the supply of PP continues to increase and the inventory pressure is large. The cost - side support is weak, and the downstream demand is gradually increasing as it is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7334 yuan/ton (-17), and the PP main contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton (-36). The LL North China spot was 7250 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (-40). The LL North China basis was -84 yuan/ton (+17), the LL East China basis was -34 yuan/ton (+17), and the PP East China basis was -48 yuan/ton (-4) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 84.2% (+0.1%), and the PP operating rate was 77.9% (+0.6%). The PE oil - based production profit was 451.6 yuan/ton (+72.3), the PP oil - based production profit was -48.4 yuan/ton (+72.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 190.0 yuan/ton (+15.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was -115.0 yuan/ton (-5.3), the PP import profit was -461.4 yuan/ton (+37.8), and the PP export profit was 30.1 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+0.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The PE upstream and mid - stream inventory changed from rising to falling, while the PP upstream and mid - stream inventory continued to rise with large inventory pressure [2]