国债期货日报：股债跷跷板明显，国债期货全线收跌-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On August 18, the decline of Treasury bond futures was mainly due to the strong stock market attracting funds and sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3740 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade, and the ChiNext Index also rose, significantly boosting risk appetite. Additionally, the tax - payment period led to a temporary tightness in the capital market. Despite the central bank's net injection of billions, the DR007 interest rate remained high, resulting in concentrated market selling pressure. The Ministry of Finance's decision to increase the supply of scarce bond types through "on - the - run sales" to improve secondary - market liquidity and trading spreads further exacerbated market concerns about rising interest rates, causing the 30 - year Treasury bond futures to decline by over 1% [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 was 0.40% and同比 was 0.00%; PPI monthly环比 was - 0.20% and同比 was - 3.60% [10]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a环比 change of + 1.04 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.24%; M2同比 was 8.80%, with a环比 increase of + 0.50% and a环比 change rate of + 6.02%; Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a环比 decrease of - 0.40% and a环比 change rate of - 0.80% [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.15, with a环比 increase of + 0.30 and a环比 change rate of + 0.31%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1819, with a环比 change of + 0.000 and a环比 change rate of - 0.01%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a环比 increase of + 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.23%; DR007 was 1.51, with a环比 increase of + 0.03 and a环比 change rate of + 2.34%; R007 was 1.56, with a环比 decrease of - 0.12 and a环比 change rate of - 7.38%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, with a环比 increase of + 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, with a环比 increase of + 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 1.27% [11]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., closing price trends, price change rates, etc.) is provided. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital - In the first half of 2025, China's national fiscal operation was generally stable, with increased expenditure expansion and continuous optimization of the revenue - expenditure structure. General public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and tax revenue accounted for over 80%. Although the overall tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, major tax types such as VAT, consumption tax, and individual income tax showed growth. General public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, focusing on key livelihood and development areas. Government - managed fund budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year, driven by the accelerated investment of central special Treasury bonds and special bonds in infrastructure. Despite the decline in land transfer income, local government - managed fund income remained relatively stable [3]. - On August 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity - based bidding [3]. - The main term repurchase interest rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.436%, 1.483%, 1.537%, and 1.528% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [3]. 4. Spread Overview No specific content other than the mention of related spread trend charts is provided. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. Strategy - Unilateral: With the rebound of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of T2509 and the basis decline of TS2509 and TL2509 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].