下游维持刚需采购，铅价偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the peak - season demand in batteries not being significantly evident. However, due to macro - factors, the non - ferrous metals sector is relatively strong. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On August 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.24/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,675 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, the waste white - shell price remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black - shell price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,475 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On August 18, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,810 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,595 lots, down 2,006 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,496 lots, down 1,711 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,750 - 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton. In Henan, suppliers offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering at a 150 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at a 20 - 0 yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price. Due to weak lead futures and increased social inventory after delivery, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, and the spot market was quiet [2] Inventory - On August 18, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, down 70 tons from the previous week. As of August 18, the LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [2]