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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data still showed resilience, but there were still pressures in domestic monthly economic data. The A-share market was strong on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near 10-year high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index breaking through last year's highs. The bond market tumbled, and commodities were divided. Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" and the progress of "anti-involution" [1]. - The current tariffs are still in a "stagnant" stage, which will bring certain drag to commodities greatly affected by external demand. After the July interest rate meeting, Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing the uncertainty of tariffs and inflation [2]. - For commodities, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply side, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is also worthy of attention. The short - term fluctuation space of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. - For strategies, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [4]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In July, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, monetary supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak, and investment data had obvious pressure. In the US, the July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly, and the "Great Beauty" bill might support subsequent consumption. On August 18, the A - share market was strong, with the total market turnover exceeding 2.8 trillion yuan, the third - highest in history. Market hotspots focused on AI hardware stocks, brokers, and fintech, while the bond market tumbled and commodities were divided [1]. Tariff Impact - On July 31, the White House re - set "reciprocal tariff" rates. From August 12, 2025, the implementation of a 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days until November 10. On August 15, the Trump administration expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports and might announce a semiconductor tariff of up to 300% within two weeks. Current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down some commodities [2]. Commodity Analysis - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints have not been alleviated. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production and increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention, and the short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited. Since the "anti - involution" market started in July, major varieties have retreated to varying degrees [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. To - do News - On August 18, the market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a near 10 - year high, over 4000 stocks rising, and the trading volume reaching 2.81 trillion yuan. Trump will meet with Zelensky and European leaders on the 18th. The European Council President emphasized the importance of trans - Atlantic unity, and the EU will introduce the 19th round of sanctions against Russia in early September [5].