烧碱情绪好转，PVC延续弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - Wait and see; Inter - commodity - None [5] - Caustic soda: Unilateral - Cautiously bullish; Inter - period - Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices; Inter - commodity - None [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the caustic soda market has improved, while the PVC market continues to be weak. The supply of PVC is under pressure, and the demand is sluggish, with a weak supply - demand situation. The caustic soda market has good demand and reduced inventory pressure, but attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and production capacity release [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5054 yuan/ton (+100), the East China basis was - 274 yuan/ton (-120), and the South China basis was - 194 yuan/ton (-130) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4860 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2755 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit was - 39 yuan/ton (-25), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 231 yuan/ton (+21), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 540 yuan/ton (-51), and the PVC export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (+2.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 32.7 tons (-1.0), the social PVC inventory was 49.3 tons (+1.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 79.21% (+1.38%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 77.92% (+0.37%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.1 tons (-4.1) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2567 yuan/ton (+28), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 58 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda variety in Shandong was 1634 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (-137.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 613.78 yuan/ton (+67.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1427.74 yuan/ton (-50.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 43.78 tons (-2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.33 tons (+0.12), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.10% (-1.00%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 85.64% (-0.09%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.46% (+2.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 86.04% (+1.07%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: After the previous maintenance, production resumed, and the overall operation rate was at a high level supported by chlor - alkali profits. Coupled with the gradual mass production of new production capacity, the PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remained at a low level, and enterprises maintained rigid procurement. The export orders decreased month - on - month. India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with a general increase of 46 - 52 US dollars/ton in the Chinese mainland compared with the previous level. There is expected to be a rush to export in September, and the export is expected to weaken after September [3] - Inventory: The social PVC inventory continued to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value was high. The warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the pressure of the 09 contract warehouse receipts was large. The chlor - alkali profit still has room for compression, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream operation rate remained at a high level, and the operation rate in Shandong was also high. However, some local enterprises had device load reduction situations, and combined with the planned maintenance of Wanhua in Yantai, the operation rate may decline slightly in the later period. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [4] - Demand side: The profit of alumina was good, and the operation rate was stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream alumina plants was lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers raised the purchase price, causing the spot price to continue to rise. The non - aluminum operation rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the procurement was acceptable. Affected by the military parade in mid - to - late August, the transportation of caustic soda was restricted, and downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, improving the market sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, the pending orders in Shandong were acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure decreased [4] - Future attention points: Attention should still be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production capacity release rhythm of alumina in Guangxi. The subsidy for liquid chlorine increased, and the cost support still exists. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None [5] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: Go long on SH10 - 01 at low prices - Inter - commodity: None [6]