Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For the apple industry, due to the low remaining inventory at the origin and the expected new - season output having little change from last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [4] - For the jujube industry, when the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, considering the high inventory of old jujubes, attention should be paid to the final production of new jujubes. If the reduction in production is less than expected, the jujube price may return to a weak trend under the pressure of high inventory [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8230 yuan/ton, a change of +42 yuan/ton or +0.51% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.80 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.50 yuan/jin, also with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 630 changed by - 42, and the spot basis AP10 + 770 also changed by - 42 [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The in - warehouse trading was slow, and the enthusiasm of merchants was average. The low inventory supported the price. Attention should be paid to the price change after the large - scale listing of Gala apples and the quality of new - season fruits [3] - Last week, it was difficult to organize a large amount of high - quality early - maturing fruits in the western production areas, giving some sales space to inventory fruits. However, due to poor consumption, the overall sales speed was slow. Currently, the inventory is at a low level, supporting the price of inventory fruits. The poor quality of early - maturing fruits with many green - returning phenomena led to average sales of both early - maturing and inventory fruits last week. The price of new - season Fuji is low, and the purchase cost of merchants is low. As the spot price falls, the profit of merchants has declined, and the current profit from purchasing goods is not high [3] - This week, early - maturing varieties such as Gala in northern Shaanxi and Luli and Jinduhong in Shandong production areas are gradually being supplied to the market, which may squeeze the inventory fruits to some extent. It is expected that the de - stocking of inventory fruits will continue to slow down this week. With the supply of early - maturing fruits in Shaanxi increasing, the price of Gala in some production areas may decline this week due to uneven quality [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral strategy. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the listing and trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [4] Jujube Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2601 contract yesterday was 11520 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton or - 0.22% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1920 changed by +25 [5] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fell yesterday. The temperature in the production area is high, and it is in the fruit expansion period of jujubes. Attention should be paid to the quality of new - season jujubes. The supply of goods in the parking area of the Hebei sales area continues, and the price of sub - standard jujubes has risen. Attention should be continuously paid to whether there are weather anomalies in the production area [7] - In the jujube production area, the fruit - setting situation of the first - crop flowers was reported to be average in some jujube orchards in the early stage. However, the temperature drop and rainfall in early July led to better fruit - setting of the second - and third - crop flowers. In August, there was strong wind in some areas, causing some fruit drop in a small number of jujube orchards in windy areas. Weather changes need to be continuously monitored [7] - In the sales area, the spot price is running strongly, downstream merchants replenish goods as needed, and the trading atmosphere has improved. Since new jujubes entered the critical flowering and fruit - setting period in June, the market has been trading around the expectation of a reduction in new - season production, and the sensitivity to weather anomalies in the production area has increased. Currently, the long - short game has intensified, and there are significant differences in the expectation of the new - season jujube production [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral strategy. When the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, due to the high inventory of old jujubes, attention should be paid to the final production of new jujubes. If the reduction in production is less than expected, the jujube price may return to a weak trend under the pressure of high inventory [8]
农产品日报：苹果库内交易放缓，红枣销区持续供应-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-19 03:21