Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] Core Viewpoints - The price center of ethylene glycol (EG) showed a weak consolidation, with the basis moderately strengthening. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$50/ton, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port showed a mixed trend. The overall supply and demand in August - September are both in an increasing trend, with a slight inventory build-up in the balance sheet, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. [1][2] - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. [2] - The supply and demand of EG are both on the rise, with little fundamental contradiction. Under low inventory conditions, attention should be paid to cost changes. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,346 yuan/ton (a change of -23 yuan/ton, or -0.53% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,439 yuan/ton (a change of -19 yuan/ton, or -0.43% compared to the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$50/ton (a month - on - month increase of $0/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was -98 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton). The syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate is expected to rise above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences are provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the current demand off - season has passed, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable and increase slightly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 53.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main port last week were 14.1 tons, with a slight inventory build - up at the port. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 5.4 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary port are 4.3 tons. [1]
本周EG主港计划到港量下降
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-19 03:24