农产品日报：需求仍显疲软，猪价震荡运行-20250819

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - Future supply - side pressure in the pig market will persist, and if consumption recovers, the supply - side出栏量 will increase synchronously. Supply is expected to remain high until March next year. The support for prices comes from fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening, and if frozen products increase significantly, prices may drop to near the cost price [2] - In the egg market, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Although weather issues make egg storage difficult and traders are cautious in purchasing, overall demand is increasing. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows on the spot market [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data (Pig) - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 125.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.90% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.59 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on August 18: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.24, up 0.36 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.59, up 0.39 points. The average price of pork was 20.20 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; beef was 64.87 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 60.17 yuan/kg, up 0.9%; eggs were 7.59 yuan/kg, unchanged;白条鸡 was 17.51 yuan/kg, up 0.7% [1] Group 4: Market News and Key Data (Egg) - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,113 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 69.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.17% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.24 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.22; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.10; in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.07 [3] - On August 18, the national production - link inventory was 0.65 days, a decrease of 0.12 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.00 days, a decrease of 0.05 days [3]