丙烯日报：下游需求支撑有限，丙烯延续偏弱震荡-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Downstream demand support for propylene is limited, and propylene continues to fluctuate weakly. Shandong Zhenhua's main PDH unit and Xintai unit are under maintenance, briefly supporting a slight increase in Shandong spot prices. However, Wanhua's PO maintenance increases propylene supply in Yantai, and downstream resistance to high prices weakens the positive impact of maintenance, causing prices to fall from highs. In the future, Tianhong and Xintai's PDH units are expected to restart, and the new capacity of Jingbo's 280,000 - ton/year K - COT unit will be released, resulting in a relatively loose supply. Downstream start - up shows a mixed trend, with overall changes being small. Short - term demand support is limited, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand as the peak season approaches. The continuous weakening of crude oil on the cost side provides negative cost support [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [17][22][31] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures are about PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization [42][44][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69]